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These pictures are worth thousands of words: Unemployment: No "V." Or expressed this way: Still no "V." Workplace activity: No "V." Total business reopenings on Yelp: No "V." Percentage of all restaurants reopened for indoor dining: No "V." Consumer confidence: No "V."...
With the first half of 2020 behind us, equity markets have been resilient despite the uncertainty caused by COVID-19. Equity markets recovered quickly after falling into the fastest bear market in history. Kim Parlee speaks with Michael Craig, Head of Asset Allocation, TD Asset Management...
A recent CNBC article states the Fed will make a major commitment to ramping up inflation. How is this different than the past decade of promises for higher inflation? More importantly, while the Fed may want inflation, its very actions continue to be deflationary. The Fed Has A Plan ...
A successful investor today must be forward-focused, weighing many things: federal and government policies, the arrival of therapeutics and vaccines, the election, our economy, the global economies, international politics, interest rates, corporate profitability, and the stock market. Whew! W...
"People who make things happen, people who watch things happen, and people who say, what in the heck happened." - Herman Cain The bulk of investors remain confused. Some of the best analysts, pundits, and money managers are having a hard time putting this equity market into perspective...
As I wrote in my non-farm payroll preview , the most important result to watch is the response rate. If the response rate is below the normal level, it might imply a higher level of business deaths. If this is true, the standard BLS methodology results in a significant overestimate of payro...
The US stock-market action last quarter was dumbfounding. Big US stocks rocketed higher despite this global pandemic ravaging the US economy, which collapsed by a third in annualized terms! That makes understanding their fundamentals more important than ever. The winding-down Q2'20 earnings se...
NEW YORK (Aug 7) - The July jobs report surprised, beating expectations and printing up 1,763,000 new jobs, above a consensus estimate of 1,600,000 jobs. Revisions for May (+26,000) and June (-9,000) netted an additional 17,000 more jobs. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate t...
Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark yo...
Just a Quickie I'll have a lot more to say about the July jobs report next week, but I just wanted to get you some top-line conclusions for weekend reading. In the first place, the household survey continues to be a mess, with very low response rates, and coding error by the Census Bureau ...