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Good morning. As a reminder, we have made a change to the presentation of our market models and my oftentimes meandering morning market missives. The goal is to create a series of more concise, bite-sized reports, which will be published on a daily basis. Below is the weekly publishing schedul...
Originally published Friday, August 7 I like to close out each week by checking in on the market's fundamental backdrop. I believe this should include the areas of interest rates, the economy, corporate earnings, inflation, and stock market valuations. In short, these areas tend to be the ...
"A mighty bubble of wealth is blown before our eyes, as empty, as transient, as contradictory to the laws of solid material, as confuted by every circumstance of actual condition, as any other bubble which man or child ever blew before." One book that I believe should be required reading o...
Those that follow my personal account on Twitter will be familiar with my weekly S&P 500 #ChartStorm in which I pick out 10 charts on the S&P 500 to tweet. Typically I'll pick a couple of themes to explore with the charts, but sometimes it's just a selection of charts that will add t...
In Part I of this series, I explained the importance of inflation to investors, and how it can affect the value of their assets. In this article, I explain why I believe that, at the moment, fears of extreme inflation by some are overblown. To start, let's look at a monetary theory of inflat...
We took our eldest back to school yesterday. That was a lot of work. I struggle with letting her make her own decisions and letting her make her own mistakes because somehow her mistakes end up becoming my mistakes. I really should have paid for the movers. I must confess. It was time well spe...
At the end of 2019 when people were making predictions of what the New Year would bring few envisioned a Pandemic that would alter the world. Few people would have predicted or imagined the changes Covid-19 has brought, to say it has been a game-changer is an understatement. This pandemic cont...
Friday's initial and continued jobless claims resume the trend of "less awful" numbers. New jobless claims fell to under 1,000,000 for the first time on an un-adjusted basis - 984,192 to be specific (gold in the graph below). After seasonal adjustment, they declined 249,000 to a new pandemic...
Understandably, attention remains focused on the dominant U.S. tech stocks, record highs in Nasdaq, sector rotation opportunities, and the Robinhood phenomenon. It's a mania, after all. There are as well stimulus negotiations and the administration's determination to pound away at China - non-...
These pictures are worth thousands of words: Unemployment: No "V." Or expressed this way: Still no "V." Workplace activity: No "V." Total business reopenings on Yelp: No "V." Percentage of all restaurants reopened for indoor dining: No "V." Consumer confidence: No "V."...