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A number of encouraging economic indicators suggest that the US is recovering from the coronavirus recession that crushed output in the second quarter. But deciding if a bounce off a very deep bottom is laying the foundation for a robust, sustained recovery remains unclear. There are still too...
A long history of recessions, dating back to the founding of the republic, has allowed us to create a template for a typical downturn in the economy. The COVID-19 recession, mostly thanks to unprecedented government action, has distinct differences from the historical recessionary outline. ...
By Robert Hughes The small-business-optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business fell 1.8 points to 98.8 in July versus 100.6 in June (see top of first chart). The latest result is the fourth month below 100 in the last five months. The index had posted a run of 39 c...
When I discuss a chart or market, I often talk about the "dominant technical factor." This is a useful concept that can help anyone, regardless of your experience level, to read a market better. What is a dominant technical factor, how do you find it, and what can go wrong? Why focus helps...
By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. Each month, the BLS produces a wealth of data from both its household survey and its establishment survey. The latter, in particular, gives us a view of where jobs are actually being created during this terrible pandemic. Normally, the data widely cited from thes...
What happens when we are stunned and dazed? We filter out the noise to focus on the bare basics by getting back to our instincts, acting reflexively based upon our deeply-held beliefs and especially training. When faced with a crisis and there's no time to really think, shorthand will have to ...
A few issues arose with regard to last Friday's jobs number; in particular, the effect of government jobs in the form of Census and teaching jobs, whether seasonal adjustments are unhelpful at this time; and whether the birth/death model used by the BLS has undercounted job losses (due to incr...
By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist Weekly Market Compass: This month, we're tracking fiscal stimulus, virus cases, US-China tensions, the US dollar, and a heavily anticipated VP pick We are officially in the "dog days of summer" (in the Northern Hemisphere, anyway)....
Economist Danielle DiMartino Booth sits down with Jeffery Gundlach to talk about financial trading and investing in the post coronavirus economy. Jeffrey Edward Gundlach is an American investor and businessperson. He is the founder of DoubleLine Capital LP, an investment firm. He was former...
Voters and investors have difficulty separating reporters, analysts, and forecasters, as they themselves don't understand their function. Unfortunately, each is required to briefly summarize their work without confusing their audience, any more than they are already. The standard way of reduci...