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Some investors are choosing to continue to ignore the market signals, despite the warning signs growing louder as the stock market is not only sick; it is on life support. Over the past few weeks, I have been laying out and building a narrative on the dangers in this equity market, and the pot...
Unemployment and economic vibrancy It's something of an oddity yet it is still true. The number of people flowing into unemployment can be a good thing when it rises. This is not because we think being unemployed is a good thing - it isn't - but because the flow indicates changes in the unde...
The output gap is a critical concept in economics that measures the real economy today relative to trend potential. Trend potential is judged by expected labor force growth and expected productivity growth, published by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, "CBO." The output gap is...
If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe… The markets would fail. - John Bogle, May 2017 A 60:40 allocation to passive long-only equities and bonds has been a great proposition for the last 35 years… We are profoundly worried that this coul...
We've been here before. We are currently in the later stages of witnessing a stock market bubble inflate but, as usual, it appears that it will inflate forever, leading to Fear of Missing Out (FOMO). Even a pandemic could not burst this bubble, although it tried. In the 1960s it was the Nifty ...
When I started these updates on February 26, 2020, about two weeks after the markets went into free fall, my first six posts were titled "Viral Market Meltdowns," reflecting the sell-off across the globe. About halfway through this series, I changed the title, replacing the word "meltdown" wit...
By Robert Hughes The fallout from government-imposed restrictions intended to slow the spread of COVID-19 continues as initial claims for unemployment benefits rose in the latest week. The longer businesses remain closed or limited, the more uncertain a labor market recovery becomes and th...
While Thursday morning's initial jobless claims increased from last week, they were better than any other readings since the pandemic started. Continuing claims had their "least worst" week yet. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 52,776 to 891,510, still only the ...
I was talking to a friend who made eight figures as a trader and investor. He's a big time biotech investor. Worked with Morgan Stanley and a guy who became a top trader for Stanley Druckenmiller. Stanley Druckenmiller: Net worth $4B+ as an investor. Was fired by George Soros then rehire...
Today’s DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims shows some improvement in the employment situation. The non-seasonal adjusted initial claims at 891,510 are up by 52,776 when compared to the previous week. However, the non-seasonal adjusted continuous insured unemployed at 14,265,34...