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The risk premia estimate for the Global Market Index (GMI) rose to 5.0% in August, 20 basis point above the previous month's estimate. This long-run forecast, which varies modestly from month to month, reflects an outlook for performance over the "risk-free" rate, according to a risk-based m...
Durable Goods Orders Orders rose 11.2% in July, but just like June, it was fueled predominately by the demand for new cars and trucks. When we exclude transportation, new orders rose 2.4%. Orders for autos and parts rose 22%, which was down modestly from the 24% growth we saw in June. N...
The COVD-19 shock is unfolding in phases. The first was the global shutdown and market collapse into the end of the first quarter. The second was a bounce in economic data and asset prices into the summer as central banks and governments unleashed monetary and fiscal support and businesses r...
For several years, investors have wrestled with a profound dilemma. With Federal Reserve and other substantial government stimulus, stock prices have risen to and remained at valuation levels that have, throughout history, ultimately been severely punished. As the years rolled on and the Fed c...
After big market movements, we are eager to look for explanations, fundamental reasons why a stock or stocks collectively moved on that day, but the reality is that a great deal of the price movement on a day-to-day basis has nothing to do with earnings, cash flows or risk. On August 31, this ...
Source You Know The Crash Is Coming, Right? The S&P 500/SPX ( SP500 ), Nasdaq, as well as other major market averages and ETFs continue to hit new all time highs/ATHs, after new ATH essentially on a daily basis. SPX futures Source: Think or Swim, Ameritrade Despite an exp...
By Scott Krauthamer and Robert Milano During the coronavirus downturn and rebound, US growth stocks outpaced value stocks by a record margin. Now growth stocks seem expensive, but that depends on how you look at it. So are these trends likely to continue-and how should investors position a...
Executive Summary: Stocks remain overbought, sentiment remains at extreme levels, and IMO, complacency has set in. And yet, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices continue to march higher on a daily basis. As such, the bears are sure to be asking, how can this be? From my seat, the answer is s...
From Ed Yardeni's blog on Tuesday, 8/25: "(1) GDPNow model tracking at 25.6% for Q2. (2) Citi's economic surprise index remains surprisingly strong. (3) US flash PMIs flashier than the ones for the Eurozone. (4) NY and Philly business surveys were solid in August. (5) Leading indicators lea...
Strong, but fragile The S&P 500 Index is seemingly unstoppable. What global depression, right? The benchmark index closed at yet another new all-time high on Tuesday and is now +4% above the pre-COVID-19 peak on February 19. Despite this relentless strength, the rally in stocks is look...