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I always like to look on the optimistic side of life, but I am realistic enough to know that life is a complex matter. - Walt Disney We're well into September, and depending on where you live, it's probably starting to get pretty cold. The days are becoming noticeably shorter, and kids are...
Is everything "priced in?" Investors have gone "all in" with a disregard for caution. But with markets extended and overvalued, what should investors do now? As discussed in this past weekend's newsletter, investors got even more speculative during the recent correction, which is the opp...
By Jill Mislinski Six of eight indexes on our world watch list posted losses through September 14, 2020. The top performer is China's Shanghai with a gain of 7.50%. Our own S&P 500 is in second with a gain of 4.73% and in third is Tokyo's Nikkei 225 with a loss of 0.41%. Coming in last...
Original Post Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha Read more ...
Every generation has its bubble, and this time it is about options, Ed Harrison told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing. Harrison discussed the phenomenon of small traders buying bullish call options, a trend that was on the rise before the pandemic and is now being ampl...
If our TCB liquidity models are correct, their implications being likewise bolstered by the seasonality of major indexes' 5-year averages, there could be a small recovery soon, but there is further pain for the markets up ahead. The implications of these models: if there's recovery soon, and m...
The purpose of this article is to examine the USA sectoral flows for August 2020 and assess the likely impact on markets going forward. Source: FRED, CBO and author's calculations based thereon The table above shows the financial balance of financial flows from the USA national accounts si...
We noted at the start of the month that market breadth warned of an impending top (see ' Not All All-Time Highs Are Equal ') and after 7% and 11% declines for the SPX and NDX, their uptrends have been decisively broken. That said, last week's decline in the VIX, together with the resilience of...
The consumer price index for August was reported up +0.4%. This is the third straight big increase. Below I show this plus the more stable consumer prices minus gas (red): Here’s what the monthly changes look like over the past 10 years: As you can see, t...
I made an unexpected choice this week. I decided to not enter the Club Championship at our club this week for the first time in over a decade. I realized that while I love golf with a passion I really don't enjoy the club championship. Things get a little too serious. I get a little too seriou...