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As the effects of the global pandemic continue to play out, business owners and investors alike are scrambling to assess the economic fallout and plan for an uncertain future. Despite the shock reverberating through the global economy, equity prices have maintained their upward trajectory. W...
Unemployment Claims Total claims filed under state and federal programs rose for a fourth week in a row, which means that the labor market is not healing but deteriorating again. In fact, claims data worsened on every metric except for the number of state filings on a seasonally-adjusted b...
By Robert Hughes Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in August following a jump of 3.5 percent in July, a surge of 6.1 percent in June and a gain of 1.0 percent in May. However, the four consecutive months of gains were not enough to overcome the back-to-back declines of 4.4 percent and...
I could go through a laundry list of pros and cons when evaluating the stock market today, but that's not necessary today. Sometimes the market gives us clearly defined risk levels and "signs" that make analysis not easy… but very simple. Today is one of those days. The way I see it, ...
Fear and money flows, are the only constants in the stock market. Last week, we dealt with the money in the stock market (read here ). In this piece, we look at the fear in the market. The AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) survey asks its participants whether they think ...
By Kristina Hooper, Chief Global Market Strategist Weekly Market Compass: A greener economy and a rise in small businesses may be a silver lining for long-term growth. It's back to school season, and that invariably reminds me of my own education and all that I enjoyed learning whe...
I have in the past forecast stock market returns using a formula that is, in fact, a tautology - which Webster defines as a statement that is true by virtue of its logical form alone. That formula is shown in the following picture. (Source: Target Date Solutions) My challenge in the past h...
We finally got a pullback in technology, and it was good to get a spike in volatility and see a little bit of a pullback to reality, Tony Greer told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing. Greer said that the path won’t be linear, but he’s comfortable with post...
Main Thesis The purpose of this article is to discuss my outlook for the broader equity market at current prices. As my readers are aware, I have been reluctant to add to equity positions of late, choosing instead to mostly increase my positions in hedges, such as gold, municipal bonds, and ...
I always like to look on the optimistic side of life, but I am realistic enough to know that life is a complex matter. - Walt Disney We're well into September, and depending on where you live, it's probably starting to get pretty cold. The days are becoming noticeably shorter, and kids are...