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By Jill Mislinski Note : With the release of August Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably ...
Editor's note: This article was originally published on Sept. 17 by Menzie Chinn here . Statistics released by Wisconsin DWD show nonfarm payroll employment growing in line with the US, but - like at the national level - at a decelerating pace. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in...
By Robert Hughes Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance totaled 860,000 for the week ending September 12, down 33,000 from the previous week's upwardly revised tally of 893,000 (see first chart). The latest week is the lowest level since the implementation of lockdowns in ...
By Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist History suggests waiting until a new president’s policies take shape hinders rather than helps long-term results. I was recently giving my usual spiel to clients about the importance of staying the course with their investments throu...
With all these warning signs pointing squarely back to the middle or end of July , it's pretty clear that "something" changed the momentum, maybe even direction, of the economy's reopening rebound. There's also no question about what one key part of what might have been responsible, thus th...
Investors are understandably nervous as we head further into a contentious U.S. election season, especially with virus-related economic concerns weighing heavily on everyone’s mind. Each time the major stock averages show even a hint of weakness, it seems, market pundits go into frenzy ...
The moment of truth has arrived in terms of the financial economy versus the real economy, Ed Harrison told Real Vision during today’s Daily Briefing. Harrison’s framework has been focused on the September/October time frame as a period of increased downside risk due to ...
Santa Claus showed up yesterday, but he didn’t leave investors with everything on their wish lists. In fact, there was more coal than goodies left under the tree. The initial reaction to the Fed’s announcement at 2 pm that it would leave short-term interest rates lower for long...
The Bank of Japan kept rates at -.1% while also maintaining yield curve control. This is how the bank described the current economic situation in Japan (emphasis added): Japan's economy has started to pick up with economic activity resuming gradually, although it has remained in a sev...
Source The Fed Fail It appears that the Fed did not give the market exactly what it was looking for. Sure, rates will remain low for years , the Fed has "QE infinity" in play, but the Federal Reserve could have been more dovish, in my view. After all, other major central banks are u...