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I have previously discussed the importance of understanding how "physics" plays a crucial role in the stock market. As Sir Isaac Newton once discovered, "what goes up, must come down." Andy Kessler, via the Wall Street Journal , recently discussed a similar point with respect to the m...
By Jill Mislinski The September Preliminary came in at 78.9, up 4.8 from the August Final. Investing.com had forecast 75.0. Surveys of Consumers Chief Economist Richard Curtin makes the following comments: Consumer sentiment improved in early September, reaching the top of the range...
By Matt Wagner, CFA, Senior Research Analyst The outperformance of higher-quality small caps relative to lower-quality companies has been well documented, notably in AQR's 2015 paper, "Size Matters, If You Control Your Junk." The intuition behind this anomaly is straightforward: Lower-qu...
The markets broadening out to financially strong, more economically sensitive companies is for real. Finally, we see better economic days ahead supported by all monetary bodies remaining all in. We see vast amounts of fiscal stimulus here and abroad shifting to demand-related stimulus programs...
There's literally nothing going on, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal said during today's Daily Briefing while discussing the collapse of volatility in the bond market, oil, precious metals, and even Bitcoin. Pal said these kinds of sideways markets kill you because either you're trying to ti...
Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark y...
Before we get to our weekly review of market fundamentals, I thought it would be a good idea to check in on the state of the current pullback happening in the stock market. Now in its 11th day, the current pullback in stocks continues to look like a typical, garden-variety correction (well, ...
Introduction Housing is a long leading indicator for the economy, typically forecasting conditions a year or more in advance. Although it is not always the case, advances - and especially declines - in housing over the past 25 years (blue in the graph below) have tended to lead advances or d...
Two days ago we saw that gains in industrial production had decelerated sharply in August. This morning we saw the same thing with real retail sales, one of my favorite indicators. Nominal retail sales were up +0.6% in August. Meanwhile, July's reading was revised downward by -0.3%. Since in...
By Jill Mislinski Note : With the release of August Retail Sales and the Consumer Price Index, we've updated this commentary to include the latest Real Retail Sales. Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably ...