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Coming together for an extraordinary experience. Five key takeaways for the second half of 2022 and beyond. Thoughts on fishing in Maine and current portfolio allocation. Remember this age-old question? If you could pick three people to invite to dinner, who would ...
There really isn’t much on tap until three weeks from today, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly jobs report on September 2. Once the jobs reports hits, it’s going to be several straight weeks of market-moving potential. Will that string of Septe...
CPI numbers show an easing of inflation. Will the Fed keep raising rates? China inflation sits at 2.7%. Does that impact their government policies? A 45% recession likelihood projection. What’s driving that number? Inflation, recession, and China are the key topic...
The recently passed "Tax and Spend" bill has all but ensured elevated inflation levels. Employment is strong? Think again. The "Jobs" picture may not be as strong as reported. We've seen the first snapshot of whether "Peak Inflation" is in the rearview mirror. This earnings se...
The combination of a less-than-feared interest rate hike and two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth sparked a strong rally in US equities and other risk assets. Indeed, as July gave way to August, a surprisingly strong jobs report and lower-than-expected CPI numbers made...
Prior to revisions, last week’s reading on jobless claims rose back up to 260K which was only 1K below the post-pandemic high from two weeks prior. This time of the year is usually when initial claims tend to head lower from a seasonal perspective, however, in the current week ...
The preliminary August results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment ticked up in early August but remains near record lows. The current economic conditions index fell to 55.5 versus 58.1 in July. The one-year inflation expectations f...
An enormous spread. A shaky interloper. Another for the arb basket. Merger Arbitrage Here's one more for the Golden Age of Merger Arb basket. My favorite of the bunch remains Twitter ( TWTR ). SA And my favorite way to play that remain...
When stocks deviate from the underlying economy, the eventual resolution is lower stock prices. While not precise, there is a correlation between economic activity and the rise and fall of equity prices. While the stock market is detached from reality, looking at past earnings con...
The latest AAII reading on the percentage of investors that are bullish on the S&P 500 over the next six months came in at 32.2%, the highest level since March. Bearish sentiment dropped to 36.7%, also the lowest reading since the end of March. Other sentiment surveys have bee...
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