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When the market was overly bearish, we got the current rally to 4300SPX. The market is going to decide how it will take shape for the next 18 months over the coming 2-3 months. We are looking for a specific set-up to point us back up towards the 5500SPX potential again. ...
Stocks continued to grind higher on better-than-expected earnings from retailers Walmart and Home Depot. Lower-end consumers have weathered inflation much better than the bearish consensus expected. Their increase in wealth and income have proved to be sufficient offsets to higher...
Can you simply buy stocks at any price and assume you’ll enjoy long-term returns on the order of 10% annually over the long-term? In a nutshell, long-term investment returns are driven by precisely three factors: long-term growth in fundamentals, the annualized change in valuat...
Economic slowdown but no recession! That message comes from the latest employment report, service sector data, and Federal Reserve. While James Bullard and others currently directing the monetary policy regime suggest they can quell inflation with only an economic slowdown, history su...
After plunging more than 22% from the start of the year through mid-June, U.S. equities in July had their biggest rally since November 2020 amid earnings reports that were generally stronger than forecasted. Several major factors drove the sell-off in equities to start the year. C...
The latest headline number of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends for July came in at 89.9, up 0.4 from the previous month. The index is at the 8th percentile in this series. The uncertainty in the small business sector is climbing again as owners continue to manage historic infla...
The US has seen a rebound in manufacturing and industrial output, coupled with a decent performance from the consumer sector and net trade and inventories being less of a drag. These factors put together support our view of 3%+ GDP growth in 3Q. However, the housing market, a weak...
Stocks have seen an unabated rally in August. But there are two big events on Wednesday that could change all of that. The VIX option expiration and Fed minutes could provide crucial turning points. Stocks aren't the only things that have risen recently. Yields and the d...
The rapid ascent in stock prices over the past month has us in an extremely overbought condition. This can work against the Fed's goal of tempering demand and result in more aggressive monetary policy actions. I see a peak in short-term rates at 3%, but if the bond market intimate...
Long-term investors need to have a strategy they can stick with no matter what happens, a strategy that keeps them on an even keel. Investing is hard and determining your risk tolerance is far from an exact science. There are a lot of people these days who seem to want the market ...
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