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The market is in the process of a healthy pullback from a technically overbought condition. The bears are pounding their chests, convinced we will take out the June lows. The improvement in market fundamentals and the macroeconomic landscape argues otherwise. A phenomena...
The main economic report of the week ahead will be the preliminary estimate of the August PMI. The policy implications are not as obvious as they may seem. The UK's composite PMI fell in three of the four months through July. However, at 52.1, it remains above the boom/bust level, tho...
Risk off had attained powerful momentum globally back in July. De-risking/deleveraging dynamics were increasingly fomenting illiquidity, contagion and instability across global markets. The S&P500 ended the session with a year-to-date loss of 20%. The Nasdaq100 was down 28%, while...
There's a danger to have a central banker centric view of the universe, where everything that happens on inflation is because of central bankers. It's critically important to figure out how much of this inflation is from supply shocks and how much is from excess demand and stimulus, m...
The yield curve is inverted from the 6-month T-bill to the 10-year Treasury note, which would suggest that the bond market’s message is “recession ahead, batten down the hatches”. Relatively tight risk spreads suggest that nobody is thinking too seriously about th...
What are the odds of a recession? What are the risks that inflation will stay elevated? How are housing markets evolving in a rising rate environment? From the risk of a recession, to the stickiness of inflation, to the prospects for the housing market, TD Econom...
The U.S., along with the U.K., the eurozone countries, and many other nations around the world, are in a deep inflation hole. In the U.S., headline inflation is running at more than 8% on a year-over-year basis, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, is running in the 6% ter...
Assessing the main issues behind recent market performance. What to expect at the Jackson Hole symposium. Economic growth slows in China. On the latest edition of Market Week in Review, Director of Client Investment Strategies, Mark Eibel, and Sophie Antal-Gilbert, Head ...
Jackson Hole has been heavily discussed since the Fed’s supposed “dovish pivot” last month when it adopted a more data-dependent stance. While policymakers have pushed back against the idea of a pivot, markets have continued to price in a slower path of tightening...
Since the stocks touched lows in mid-July, the S&P 500 index is up by as much as 17%. Notably, this is an annualized performance of more than 200%! The current macro-economic environment paired with the market’s high valuation implies one of the most unfavourable risk/rewar...
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