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Global equity markets went into a protective crouch last quarter, and factor performance followed suit. The collapse in Consumer Discretionary and/or Technology stocks was a dominant driver of global factor performance in Q2. The Quality premium versus Value has returned to its lo...
This June, the number of layoffs and discharges were still near historic lows. The number of voluntary quits were still near record highs. The number of hires remained very high. Job openings, which dropped for the third month in a row, were still in historic red-hot nose-bleed territ...
The second quarter was dominated by negative market sentiment amid worries over skyrocketing inflation and the risks of a global recession. The broad market selloff over the past few months led almost all markets to finish the second quarter with negative returns in U.S. dollars and l...
We’re seeing the Q2 preliminary estimates of earnings, but the real question is about the earnings in Q3 and Q4. So earnings expectations will be valued at an equity risk premium based on interest rates in the future. We’re still holding a large (for us) cash reserve...
The number of open positions in the private sector decreased to 9.766 million in June, down from 10.275 million in May and a record-high 10.812 million in March. The highest openings rates were in leisure and hospitality (8.5 percent), education and health care (8.4 percent), professi...
Last Thursday, the Commerce Department announced its preliminary estimate for second-quarter GDP growth at an annualized decline of -0.9%, which marks two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The Commerce Department announced on Wednesday that durable goods orders increased a ...
Advanced estimates suggest real output declined for a second straight quarter in 2022, prompting many to debate whether we are in a recession and what that even means. First, note that overproduction does not mean above-trend production. Rather, it means producing more than is warrant...
When measuring markets in percentage terms, the math is very deceiving. The investing lesson investors have yet to learn is that capital preservation matters most in achieving long-term financial goals. In the end, market corrections are very bad for your portfolio. Ever...
Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in June 2022 is $77,881, an increase of $616 (or 0.82%) from the initial estimate of $77,265 in May 2022. Once again, inflation eroded all of the nominal month-over-month gain for American households in June 2022. For...
The inflation surge has dominated the narrative for equity investors in 2022. Computer chip shortages, COVID shutdowns, and the war in Ukraine have combined to create broad supply chain bottlenecks that limited automotive production globally. In this environment, investors in US e...
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