Global Macro Outlook: Third Quarter 2026

2026-07-02 09:39:00 ET

The Macro Picture

The war in Iran was the dominant theme in the global economy and financial markets in the second quarter. Rising and volatile energy prices pushed global inflation higher and threatened the growth outlook, particularly in regions that rely heavily on commodity imports. Still, oil prices stayed below levels we think would be likely to cause a recession in major economies. A growth impact is inevitable, but we expect it to be manageable and for the global economy to continue to expand....

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