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Federal Reserve wants to hit the brakes, a 180-degree reversal from the recent two-year effort to turbo-stimulate the U.S. economy. USD's strength since early last year has defied a widening trade deficit, historic negative real interest rates, and growing anxiety that weaponizing the...
The final June results from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show overall consumer sentiment plunged to a new record low. The second sub-index - that of consumer expectations, one of the AIER leading indicators - lost 7.7 points or 13.9 percent for the month, dropping t...
Both individual and institutional investor sentiment is expressing bearishness on future equity returns. NAAIM Exposure Index consists of a weekly survey of NAAIM member firms that are active money managers. The current environment is a unique one given all the cross-currents impa...
The latest U.S. stock market bounce is underway. How much further and longer can we reasonably expect for it to last. Staying in control as the bear market continues to take hold. For further details see: Two-And-A-Half Weeks Before Topping Out
Growth is slowing, but it’s slowing to trend at this point. So not to zero, not to negative, but something like the trend that we’ve experienced over the last couple of decades. So, if you’re looking for a great way to play inflation, look to the small cap asset c...
NGDP is up 12.4% over the past 9 quarters, an annual rate of 5.3%. That’s too high. I usually focus on NGDP out of sheer laziness, and also because it is normally quite similar to NGDI. The past few years have been quite unusual, however, with a surprisingly large divergenc...
Jobless claims have been trending higher off of multi-decade lows, indicating a moderating labor market. Continuing claims lag by one week relative to initial claims and moved higher for the third consecutive week, representing the longest streak of weekly increases since March 2020. ...
The March 2020 market freefall was highly unusual in its brevity. As unusual inflows spiked prices, many erroneously believed that the escalation into 2022 was ‘normal’. Indiscriminate buying can look smart in bull markets, where pullbacks are fleeting. For fur...
Russia's war with Ukraine and recent lockdowns in mainland China have further disrupted supply chains, adding to cost pressures. The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points at its mid-June meeting and signaled its determination to return inflation to 2%, acknowled...
Initial claims for regular state unemployment insurance fell 2,000 for the week ending June 18, coming in at 229,000. The Russian invasion of Ukraine sustained elevated price increases, and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle represent risks to the economic outlook. Labor shortag...
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2024-06-14 19:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-24 17:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 19:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...