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2023-12-15 01:07:38 ET Summary I was way off in my 2023 prediction for the S&P 500 but corrected some model errors to improve my prediction for 2024. The bear market appears to have ended in October 2022, making it shorter than the long bull markets on which I based my 2023 fo...
2023-12-06 03:00:00 ET Summary Economic resilience continues to be the theme of 2023, with the strength of consumer balance sheets and the resilience to higher interest rates as the primary factors supporting the US economy. Based on the short-leading indicators of the business cy...
2023-12-05 18:25:00 ET Summary In a mixed year for equity risk factors, several flavors of large-cap shares stand out as this year’s winners, based on a set of ETF proxies through Monday’s close (Dec. 4). Small-cap stocks are on track to trail by a wide margin in rel...
2023-12-05 10:20:00 ET Summary Without a doubt U.S. equity market returns have been exceptional this year, specifically for mega-cap stocks. With the calendar now entering the month of December and year-end fast approaching, a favorable seasonal period lies ahead for the market. ...
2023-12-04 14:45:00 ET Summary Bill Ackman, the legendary hedge fund manager, has noted in the last two weeks that the FOMC is likely much closer to cutting rates. The point is that no matter what Powell and the FOMC say, monetary policy can and will change quickly. If there a...
2023-12-04 13:29:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 value index is up nearly 15% and international value stocks are up nearly 10%. Gold and commodities are also both up over that time, but small and midcap stocks and REITs are all down. There’s been a lot of chatter recently tha...
2023-11-28 05:51:00 ET Summary Equities have an important role to play in a diversified allocation today, to help hedge against inflation and to navigate a lower-growth environment. This year, the ERP for US stocks has declined. Our ERP metric shows the earnings yield of the S&...
2023-11-27 20:47:00 ET Summary The Thanksgiving holiday-shortened trading week saw the S&P 500 close at 4559.34, up 1.0% from the previous week's close. October 2023's short-term spike in long-term U.S. Treasury rates occurred just one month ago, so the model's raw projections...
2023-11-27 08:33:00 ET Summary While there has been a sharp decline in the expected Q4 ’23 S&P 500 EPS growth rate from 12.7% on 9/30/23 to 5.4% on 11/24/23, this is less worrisome given the y.y compare with Q4 ’22. The S&P 500 has not made a new high since t...
2023-11-27 03:08:00 ET Summary Q4 ’23 S&P 500 EPS has a weak comparison vs. year ago, to be sure, and if we “ex-Energy” from Q4 ’22, the quarter was even weaker at -7.2%. The one critical aspect to earnings reports that began last week with Walmart ...
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2024-04-24 17:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 19:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-04 21:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...