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2023-03-16 06:58:31 ET Summary A slowly cooling inflationary environment may not be enough for the economy to avoid further rate hikes in March. Increasing pressure on the banking system has culminated in the failures of institutions such as Silicon Valley Bank. Significant up...
2023-03-16 05:30:00 ET Summary The Fed finally broke something. Prudence would argue for a less-hawkish stance on the part of the Fed. We’ve been this way before. scared/panicky, but it is not the end of the world. So, now what? Preamble I composed...
2023-03-16 05:05:00 ET Summary Over the past week, investors have had to digest U.S. banking failures and the threatened collapse of a major European bank. This stress has finally underscored the tensions between global central banks’ efforts to tame inflation and growing c...
2023-03-16 01:17:00 ET Summary The biggest story of 2023 is not a function of if the Fed will pause and then pivot to rate cuts. Instead, it's a matter of when will this shift take place. The inversion of the yield curve is a perfect predictor of an upcoming recession, but the inv...
2023-03-16 00:30:00 ET Summary The New York Fed’s Empire Manufacturing report indicated a significant deterioration in the region’s manufacturing sector. New Orders and Shipments both saw double-digit declines into bottom decile readings. Inventory expectations s...
2023-03-15 23:05:00 ET Summary After more than 12 long years, the stage may finally be set for an extended upswing in small-caps. When leadership concentration broke down in previous cycles, we saw multiyear periods where small caps outperformed large caps. In the current cycl...
2023-03-15 22:40:27 ET Summary A surprise lower in the February PPI and room for inflation to trend lower going forward is a favorable development. The banking industry turmoil has opened the door for the Fed to pause at the next FOMC, taking a more cautious approach. Stocks c...
2023-03-15 22:32:00 ET Summary After the painful decline in stock prices last year, many investors have clearly come to the conclusion that this now represents another terrific buying opportunity. The forward price-to-earnings ratio now shows the S&P 500 trades at a multiple o...
2023-03-15 22:25:00 ET Summary The failure of Silicon Valley Bank, along with Silvergate Bank and the Signature Bank of New York, has created what is possibly an inflection point in the bond markets. The effect on the fixed-income markets has been nothing short of astonishing. ...
2023-03-15 17:52:51 ET Summary The latest CPI release contains conflicting data, which can be used to support a belief in either high inflation or low inflation. Inflation has not yet fully normalized, but it also hasn't been a large problem for months. Softer labor markets, a...