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2023-03-19 08:26:16 ET Summary The Fed stepped in to ease the liquidity and banking crisis. The bearish bias has flipped back to neutral and opportunities lie in both directions. What to watch in the S&P 500 in the week ahead. Key technical levels and probable outcomes. ...
2023-03-19 08:21:00 ET Summary The first thing we should emphasize is that the Silicon Valley Bank saga is not, as far as any of the evidence to date suggests, the tip of an iceberg of systemic risk throughout the banking system. Credit Suisse is plugged into the global financial ...
2023-03-19 07:46:00 ET Summary The annual change in real US GDP and the S&P 500 shows broadly the same trends over the last 20 years. To quantify the relationship between the US economy and the stock market, we calculated rolling 10-year correlations. Even if economies and...
2023-03-19 06:15:00 ET Summary The Fed should follow the ECB's approach and hike rates by 25 bps. The Fed has gone on and on about the importance of price stability. Now is the time for them to prove how important price stability is. This week, the Federal Reserve me...
2023-03-19 05:47:00 ET Summary As expected, the sudden failure of SVB rattled global capital markets. Over the past week, investors dramatically changed their expectations of future Fed actions. It remains to be seen how badly the overall economy will be damaged by recent even...
2023-03-19 05:41:00 ET Summary Idiosyncratic factors certainly played a role in SVB’s failure and the recent turmoil we’re seeing in US regional banks as well as overseas at Credit Suisse. CS is a much larger and more economically critical bank than SVB, with signifi...
2023-03-19 01:57:00 ET Summary Although headline inflation continues to fall and unemployment is near a 50-year low, the Federal Reserve still faces some tricky policy decisions over the next few months. The impression that the Fed is targeting supercore inflation was reinforced b...
2023-03-18 09:22:17 ET Summary The Fed, Treasury and FDIC Chairmen put out a joint statement that all depositors would be made whole at the failed Silicon Valley and Signature Banks. The Fed will make available additional funding for eligible depository institutions to assure abil...
2023-03-18 08:54:00 ET Summary S&P 500 earnings don’t start for another 3 – 4 weeks and are almost an afterthought now. The forward 4-quarter estimate slid this week to $221.49 from last week’s $221.55. Looking at companies like Meta (META) and Federal...
2023-03-18 08:30:00 ET Summary The Fed began raising interest rates one year ago, on March 17, 2022, and the U.S. economy is not in recession. Milton Friedman famously found that the time lags are long and variable. The factors delaying recession will not prevent it, and it...