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2023-03-22 17:02:00 ET Summary The economic data renaissance combined with the threat of financial sector instability leaves central banks with difficult choices. Strong household and corporate finances are likely to limit the downturn to a mild recession. The Fed faces a daun...
2023-03-22 14:39:00 ET Summary The AIER Leading Indicator remained essentially neutral in February 2023, maintaining the level of 58 from the previous month. Over the past year, the Leading Indicator has declined from generally neutral levels to a preponderance of contractionary i...
2023-03-22 13:45:00 ET Summary As we noted in today’s Morning Lineup, sector performance has heavily favored areas like Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Communication Services in recent weeks. Although FANG+ stocks have been strong recently, that follows more than a full y...
2023-03-22 12:11:00 ET Summary Reverberations for the economy remain a threat, but for the moment the odds of contagion risk that spreads across the financial system seem to be receding. Fears of wider, global crisis swirled as Switzerland-based Credit Suisse looked set to implode...
2023-03-22 11:46:00 ET Summary As central banks have been trying to control inflation with the fastest rate hikes since the early 1980s, we've begun to see some cracks in the financial system. There are uncomfortable echoes of course, anytime you get any sort of problem in the fin...
2023-03-22 09:04:00 ET Summary What does it take to quickly reverse an improving outlook for dividends? Investors have quickly become far more gloomy than they had been before the bank failures and the Biden administration's response to them. Dividend futures indicate the amou...
2023-03-22 06:00:00 ET Summary Although reference yields on government bonds have decreased since the failure of SVB, risk premia have widened, raising financing costs and discouraging investment. Deposit withdrawals and declining equity valuations will put banks in a defensive po...
2023-03-22 04:22:00 ET Summary The simplest thing that can be said about current financial market and banking conditions is this: the unwinding of this Fed-induced, yield-seeking speculative bubble is proceeding as one would expect, and it’s not over by a longshot. Silicon ...
2023-03-22 03:20:00 ET Summary An active Fed means that investors may finally get some yield out of front-end fixed income. Inverted curves also mean attractive income with limited duration risk, in our view. We think that elevated inflation will likely keep the Fed hiking rates. ...
2023-03-22 02:50:00 ET Summary Both the leading indicators of growth and liquidity continue to suggest growth will slow as 2023 progresses. The housing market and the inventory cycle in particular are still material headwinds to growth, while we are still unlikely to have fully fe...