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2023-04-10 07:15:00 ET Summary In mid-March, as markets were gripped by the fear of the recent regional bank turmoil, insider responded by aggressively buying their shares. This was especially true in banking, where we observed purchases well above the normal cadence of activity. ...
2023-04-10 04:15:00 ET Summary Along with the March ’23 CPI and PPI data coming on Wednesday and Thursday, many big banks are reporting results ahead in the week. Although bank lending was shown to have contracted by the largest amount on record - $105 billion - that could ...
2023-04-10 03:30:00 ET Summary The U.S. economy is slowing. A major tightening of real estate lending is now unfolding. The biggest lesson from Kuroda's rein: No individual (or small group) should ever have such absolute power to inflate. April 7 - Bloomberg (Alexa...
2023-04-09 23:56:00 ET Summary As the year progresses, the 2023 outlook has become murkier rather than clearer. The US economy significantly outperformed our expectations in 1Q. We expect policymakers in China to emphasize domestic drivers of demand in their efforts to boost g...
2023-04-09 06:15:00 ET Summary The jobs report was stronger than expected, and repriced rate hike odds. The CPI report is likely to show that inflation is sticky. The market will be upset when it finds out there will be a rate hike in May and no rate cuts in 2023. Th...
2023-04-09 05:51:00 ET Summary In March, two high-profile implosions at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank sent tremors throughout the financial sector, reminding markets that the economy remains a complex ecosystem of causes and consequences. In the coming months, we expect m...
2023-04-08 12:30:00 ET Summary The latest employment report points toward further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The inflation that the Fed is fighting results from too much stimulus relative to the country’s productive capacity. Employment grew again in Ma...
2023-04-08 04:56:14 ET Summary US "Manufacturing" remains in recession, while "Services" improve. April "Seasonality" suggests stocks will move higher, while the longer-term view suggests caution. Earnings season is the catalyst that can change the picture (good or bad) quickl...
2023-04-08 04:06:54 ET Summary So far, so good. It looks like the Federal Reserve has managed through the recent "bank crisis" and has remained on track in pursuing its quantitative tightening. Although we are not finished with the concern over bank failures and bank risk, the Fed...
2023-04-08 01:36:16 ET Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The long leading indicators remain overwhelmingly negative; the short leadin...