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2023-04-14 14:02:00 ET Summary S&P 500 EPS growth for Q1 2023 is set to come in at -6.8%, the lowest rate in nearly 3 years. Themes from Q1 and for CY 2023: inflation, increasing interest rates, possibility of recession, banking crisis, softening employment. The LERI shows...
2023-04-14 12:46:25 ET Summary Liquidity is likely to make a big u-turn over the next couple of weeks. Reserve balances at the Federal Reserve have risen in recent weeks, but that's due to reverse. The Treasury General Account is down to its last $85 billion and is set to rise...
2023-04-14 11:47:00 ET Summary Recession odds have climbed considerably since Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress and the latest FOMC meeting. The Fed remains abundantly clear that it still sees inflation as a “persistent and pernicious” economic threat ...
2023-04-14 10:54:39 ET Summary Yesterday's Producer Price Index was well below expectations, reinforcing the disinflationary trend that started last June. Stocks soared on the news, as producer prices are a precursor to consumer prices. This should end the debate about future ...
2023-04-14 10:13:15 ET Summary The definition of inflation as the year-over-year change in CPI is misleading. Inflation falls, but prices continue to rise. Higher prices are realized even if inflation rises slowly above 0%. Even if year-over-year inflation falls, over longer l...
2023-04-14 04:26:26 ET Summary Investors still are not taking the Federal Reserve seriously about the tightness of monetary policy. The commercial banking system has $3.5 trillion in cash assets on banks' balance sheets and the financial system still seems to have plenty of money ...
2023-04-14 03:00:00 ET Summary Most ETF trading activity occurs in the secondary market, where ETF shares change hands between buyers and sellers. March 2023 saw a number of shocks to global financial markets, including bank bailouts and the prolonged effects of a heightened inter...
2023-04-14 01:00:00 ET Summary Although the worst of the crisis may very well be over, you’re going to see this affect the economy through tighter lending standards. Monetary policy notoriously has long and variable lags. Dividend growers usually outperform during the e...
2023-04-14 00:30:00 ET Summary The latest AAII sentiment survey showed only 26.1% of respondents reported as bullish compared to the recent high of 33.3% last week. Although bullish sentiment fell, without any considerable push lower for the S&P 500, bearish sentiment wen...
2023-04-13 13:09:08 ET Summary The average of S&P 500 for March-2023 was 3,969 (15% down from Dec-2021 average of 4,675) and is 384 points higher than the corresponding re-calibrated long-term trend value of 3,585. For the S&P 500 to reach, the corresponding long-trend val...