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2023-04-17 10:30:00 ET Summary The joint stock-bond rally this year has put renewed focus on portfolio construction approaches. We think a new macro regime needs a new approach. U.S. stocks rose last week but lost steam on Friday on the market partly pricing out potential rate cut...
2023-04-17 06:05:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 is up +8.27% YTD, while expected S&P 500 EPS growth in 2023 is just +0.6%. 2024 expected S&P 500 sector growth rates are looking at healthier EPS growth than the last few years. Of the last 34 years (through 2022) where the S&...
2023-04-17 03:00:00 ET Summary With bank lending tightening, it seems prudent for the Fed to hit the pause button. Markets are conditioned for loose conditions, expecting Fed loosening measures to reverse any meaningful tightening. Money is perceived as a liquid and stable sto...
2023-04-16 06:15:00 ET Summary Earnings season has started and so far, the banks have delivered better-than-feared results. This has caused the market to start repricing the path of monetary policy. Rate cuts are being removed from the equation. With signs of the ban...
2023-04-15 07:20:00 ET Summary Inflation reports are showing improvement, but there is more work to be done. A Bear market has never bottomed before a recession begins. Projections for slower economic growth translate into a negative effect on corporate earnings. Banks are...
2023-04-15 05:49:00 ET Summary Together with the lagged effects of Fed rate hikes, recent bank failures are likely to adversely affect credit conditions. The impact on small businesses, which employ the largest share of workers in the U.S. economy and are already starved of credit...
2023-04-15 05:08:00 ET Summary Global business activity rose in March at the fastest rate for nine months. The latest reading is broadly indicative of worldwide GDP rising at a robust quarterly annualized rate of approximately 3.0%, helping to further allay worries of the global e...
2023-04-15 01:20:00 ET Summary Initial jobless claims were expected to tick higher this week with forecasts calling for a rise to 235K. Instead, the increase was even more pronounced moving up to 239K from last week’s unrevised reading of 228K. After seasonal adjustment...
2023-04-15 00:35:00 ET Summary In addition to a plethora of Fedspeak, investors will closely pay attention to the Fed’s Beige Book. On Friday, the April flash PMI readings for the eurozone will be watched closely as they reflect some of the banking turmoil that has hit the ...
2023-04-14 14:02:00 ET Summary S&P 500 EPS growth for Q1 2023 is set to come in at -6.8%, the lowest rate in nearly 3 years. Themes from Q1 and for CY 2023: inflation, increasing interest rates, possibility of recession, banking crisis, softening employment. The LERI shows...