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2023-04-18 05:00:00 ET Summary U.S. Bank loans and leases declined by $105 billion in the two weeks following the banking system disruption, suggesting some downward pressure ahead for the U.S. economy. A plus 1% spread between the 1-year and the 10-year is a sign of a meaningfull...
2023-04-18 04:29:00 ET Summary On Friday, the S&P 500 Volatility index (VIX) saw a new 2023 closing low vs. the S&P 500 itself. The last time the VIX got that low there was a drawdown on the S&P 500 from 4195.44 to 3808.86 on the Monday after the SVB failure. Unles...
2023-04-18 03:35:00 ET Summary The financial media has been warning that first quarter earnings forecasts may be decelerating from their original estimates at the start of the quarter, but I do not see that from the analyst community covering our stocks. That’s why itȁ...
2023-04-18 03:10:52 ET Summary Traditional leading economic indicators place a heavy focus on data from the construction and manufacturing sectors. The shrinking share of the cyclical economy has led many people to question the validity of traditional leading indicators. It...
2023-04-18 02:25:00 ET Summary If inflation ebbs and the yield curve returns to its normal upward slope rather than being inverted, we are apt to see a change out of deposits and money market funds into longer-dated investments. If inflation ebbs and the yield curve returns to its...
2023-04-17 22:18:00 ET Summary How to recognize and prioritize market road signs. The importance of a diversified portfolio. Being nimble but keeping perspective when markets become volatile. There is no shortage of mixed signals to cloud the investment lands...
2023-04-17 16:14:00 ET Summary Better-than-expected inflation reports during the week and an increasingly likelihood of recession are instead raising the prospect the Federal Funds Rate will reach a peak target range of 5.00-5.25% in May 2023. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool estimat...
2023-04-17 15:38:57 ET Summary The recent economic data hasn't been good. Also, we passed the phase where "bad news" was considered good news for stocks. The market is not ready for higher rates for a more extended period, and the Fed must provide the pivot soon, or else. ...
2023-04-17 12:00:00 ET Summary While many continue to apply "logic" to the market, the market is an emotional environment rather than a logical one. Applying economic theories to prognosticate the stock market simply cannot work for many reasons. The next 3-6 months will tell ...
2023-04-17 10:30:00 ET Summary The joint stock-bond rally this year has put renewed focus on portfolio construction approaches. We think a new macro regime needs a new approach. U.S. stocks rose last week but lost steam on Friday on the market partly pricing out potential rate cut...