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2023-04-22 03:30:00 ET Summary Given current market uncertainties, K2 Advisors remains defensive in terms of market outlook and beta positioning. While many managers experienced losses around recent rates volatility, the opportunity set may become clearer as policymakers grapple w...
2023-04-22 00:01:00 ET Summary Since Q1 ’23 earnings started two weeks ago, when quarterly EPS was expected to decline 5%, the expected decline today is -4.7%. Low expectations coming into an earnings quarter typically results in a better chance for upside in the stocks onc...
2023-04-21 17:34:00 ET Summary What can breakeven inflation rates tell us about oil prices, energy stocks, and market direction? It turns out it’s a lot more than you think. With employment back to pre-pandemic levels, the monetary impulse has reversed, the supply-demand im...
2023-04-21 16:28:00 ET Summary Yesterday’s release of the Leading Economic Index from the Conference Board appears to settle the matter in favor of recession, but real-time analysis isn’t as clear-cut as this indicator suggests. The consultancy forecasts “econ...
2023-04-21 14:36:04 ET Summary The Fed is currently hiking into a recession, like in 1929. But the Fed also hiked during other recessions, like in 1974. History shows that the Fed hikes if necessary, despite the economic and financial damage. Given the current situation, t...
2023-04-21 13:40:29 ET Summary The common conception is that earnings drive stock prices. Unfortunately, studies do not support this common conception. Furthermore, the empirical evidence does not support this common conception either. One of the most common perspectives...
2023-04-21 11:47:00 ET Summary April has started off on a fairly strong note, with equities and bonds both pushing higher over the past month. This comes at a time when Q2 is fraught with recession worries and a renewed potential for energy shortages. How have stocks managed t...
2023-04-21 08:20:00 ET Summary While U.S. growth has remained strong, even accelerating in early 1Q, leading indicators continue to signal recession. Tighter lending standards, as a result of the recent banking crisis, only increase the risk of a hard landing. Part of the inflatio...
2023-04-21 04:36:44 ET Summary It appears as if the banking disruptions started in early March 2023 have reached an end and the Fed can return to its previous fight against inflation. The Federal Reserve has begun reducing the "liquidity" it provided the banking system to stop the...
2023-04-21 03:00:00 ET Summary China has inked deals with countries like Brazil to trade in either the Chinese yuan or the Brazilian real directly, thereby bypassing conversion to the dollar. The amount of sovereign debt denominated in US dollars (liabilities of non-US central ban...