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2023-04-23 11:20:49 ET Summary Knowing when the U.S. economy is heading for recession is paramount to successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliable warnings for the past seven recessions and signaled the Covid 2020 recess...
2023-04-23 08:35:00 ET Summary The latest PMI survey data from S&P Global adds to signs that business activity has regained growth momentum after contracting over the seven months to January. The upturn was led by the service sector, where activity grew for a third successive ...
2023-04-23 07:53:01 ET Summary Flashing lights on the economic and market dashboard suggest that more stock market turbulence may lie ahead. Several readings continue to signal underlying stress. Be careful what you wish for when it comes to Fed policy. The stock mar...
2023-04-23 07:41:00 ET Summary The sudden collapse of two US regional banks and the forced acquisition of Credit Suisse in Europe introduced a third dimension to the existing policy dilemma of balancing inflation and growth objectives: financial stability. In the weeks since banki...
2023-04-23 06:48:00 ET Summary The sources of the immense water pressure causing cracks in our economy are high inflation, leading to high-interest rates and too much debt. Our long-term view on elevated inflation is based on structural supply and demand imbalances, most notably i...
2023-04-23 04:52:00 ET Summary The first quarter of 2023 was marked by heightened volatility during the banking crisis in March, although the preceding two months were fairly tame. We saw a very volatile first quarter in fixed income, with much speculation into U.S. Federal Reserv...
2023-04-23 04:31:00 ET Summary When markets are in a tailspin, and an extended one at that, it can be hard to see beyond the immediate stresses. Companies that compound their earnings by reinvesting them into revenue growth, margin improvement, or share count reduction are effecti...
2023-04-22 04:50:44 ET Summary Inflation is moving in the right direction, and that bolsters the "what could go right" argument. Bank lending has fallen off a cliff, increasing the "what could go wrong" commentary. We may not be in an "official" recession, but we are working t...
2023-04-22 04:15:00 ET Summary Recent outperformance by large-cap growth stocks may reflect a rotation into long-duration assets as the economy weakens and the turn in the rates cycle approaches. We remain cautious on equities in general, however, given uncertainty about the laggi...
2023-04-22 03:30:00 ET Summary Given current market uncertainties, K2 Advisors remains defensive in terms of market outlook and beta positioning. While many managers experienced losses around recent rates volatility, the opportunity set may become clearer as policymakers grapple w...