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2023-04-25 14:33:00 ET Summary Despite persistent inflation and tightening financial conditions, the global economic expansion will continue at a moderate pace. Global real GDP growth picked up from an annual rate of 1.5% quarter over quarter at the end of 2022 to an estimated 2.5...
2023-04-25 13:53:00 ET Summary The historical analysis suggests summer months of the market tend to be the weakest of the year. While the technical indications may be enough warning on their own to reduce risk heading into May, it is worth remembering the Fed is set to hike rates ...
2023-04-25 12:20:00 ET Summary The general price trend in various US markets, utilizing the median performance of US Diversified Equity Funds (USDEF), measuring from the peak on 2/19/20 to last Thursday, saw a compound gain of +5.93%. However, for the last 2 years, the average USDEF l...
2023-04-25 11:41:00 ET Summary The month of April has seen the S&P 500 move within less than a 100-point range during regular sessions, adding only a few points more if one were to include overnight futures trading. It is absurd for the Fed to be hiking interest rates next wee...
2023-04-25 10:31:00 ET Summary Banking stress is unambiguously negative for the economy because it creates difficulties for small and midsize companies, which tend to utilize smaller banks due to the ease of access to credit they provide. We believe the Fed will be reluctant to mo...
2023-04-25 09:30:00 ET Summary The CES employment report for April will not be out until after the FOMC meeting, meaning that only March data will be in hand. The most recent release is particularly informative, given the concerns expressed about the mini-financial crisis we exper...
2023-04-25 08:50:00 ET Summary The G7 nations pledged to accelerate a gradual phase out of fossil fuels and shift to renewable energy. But I do not believe that many G7 countries will meet net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. While the Fed should at least “pauseȁ...
2023-04-25 03:25:00 ET Summary Why market uncertainty could lead to a return to quality. The unusual market cycle markets find themselves in now. Canadian banks may face a few tough quarters but will prove their resiliency. Despite potential headwinds, equity markets...
2023-04-25 01:40:00 ET Summary The economic data in the week ahead should solidify rate hike expectations for the May 3rd FOMC meeting, but it could also raise the bar for further tightening for the June 14th meeting. HICP data from Germany, France, and Spain will provide firm ins...
2023-04-24 18:54:00 ET Summary Since the beginning of 2022 though, international developed equities have outperformed the S&P 500 Index and over the last 12 months the MSCI EAFE Index return of 4.2% exceeds the S&P 500 Index return that is down -4.3%. Although U.S stocks h...