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2023-04-24 18:54:00 ET Summary Since the beginning of 2022 though, international developed equities have outperformed the S&P 500 Index and over the last 12 months the MSCI EAFE Index return of 4.2% exceeds the S&P 500 Index return that is down -4.3%. Although U.S stocks h...
2023-04-24 14:08:00 ET Summary Yield curves and credit spreads are good indicators but the former aren’t particularly timely and the second can provide a lot of false signals. Interest rates rose last week but the short-term trend for the 10-year Treasury yield is still dow...
2023-04-24 12:47:00 ET Summary Rising fears of recession did little to alter the trajectory of the S&P 500 (SPX) during the third week of April 2023. The index ended the week at 4133.52, down just 0.1% from where it closed the previous week. Earlier in the week, signs tha...
2023-04-24 12:45:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 Net Non-Commercial Futures has become a reliable market sentiment in recent years. The S&P 500 posted a recent low in Oct 2022 and is rising on rising pessimism. Pessimism always presents buying opportunities. The S&...
2023-04-24 11:50:00 ET Summary The last two weeks have been the least volatile period for stocks in over two years. The market has been rather boring and stuck in a smaller and smaller range. Money has been flowing into money market funds and out of banks, as investors are satisfi...
2023-04-24 11:00:00 ET Summary It seems that the general perspective is that the market is going to crash. In the great majority of the times, the market does not do what most expect. The nature of the next decline will tell us if a crash is setting up to begin this year. ...
2023-04-24 10:30:00 ET Summary We are leaning into our preference for emerging market (EM) assets due to China’s restart, ending EM interest rate hiking cycles and a weaker U.S. dollar. Global stocks were flat on the week. PMI data showed economic activity holding up in the...
2023-04-24 05:57:00 ET Summary The China recovery story is generating some buzz. Cooperation, integration, and alliances are seen as mutually beneficial. Policymakers almost everywhere face the predicament of elevated inflation and weakening growth prospects. It was ...
2023-04-23 11:27:00 ET Summary The IMF expects slowing global growth and slowing global inflation to eventually return developed market interest rates down to levels that make sovereign debt sustainable. Banking problems in the US and Europe result in slower credit growth, but are...
2023-04-23 11:20:49 ET Summary Knowing when the U.S. economy is heading for recession is paramount to successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliable warnings for the past seven recessions and signaled the Covid 2020 recess...