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2023-04-29 00:05:00 ET Summary This week will be extremely busy as we have an FOMC decision, the nonfarm payroll report, peak earnings season, all while Wall Street keeps an eye on the banking industry to see if any new stresses arise. The ECB is under less pressure to pause its t...
2023-04-28 12:01:09 ET Summary Too many believe that the substance of news will direct the market moves. We see markets move opposite the news, and it makes many quite confused. I'm still looking for a potential rally to 4300SPX before we see a bigger market swoon. ...
2023-04-28 04:13:40 ET Summary An overview of the debt ceiling impasse. A detailed breakdown of the liquidity implications that will come after the debt ceiling is resolved. A zoomed-out analysis of government debt, deficits, and interest expense more broadly. The po...
2023-04-28 03:30:00 ET Summary Americans came out of their funk they’d been in late last year. They’re 70% of GDP. And they blew money left and right; spending on durable goods spiked. GDP, adjusted for inflation, rose by 1.1% in Q1 from Q4, following the 2.6% increa...
2023-04-28 02:00:00 ET Summary The Fed only holds government-backed Agency MBS where the taxpayer carries the credit risk, not the Fed. The FDIC bridge banks have been and still are the largest of the bank liquidity support programs. Treasury notes and bonds roll off the balan...
2023-04-28 00:30:00 ET Summary The latest week’s jobless claims data fell down to 230K from the previous week’s upward revision to 246K. Like initial claims, seasonally adjusted continuing claims also surprised with a decline this week. The potential for further ...
2023-04-28 00:26:00 ET Summary Real US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the first quarter of 2023, coming in within the lower half of estimates that ranged from 0.4 to 3.5% on Bloomberg. The reading, which will go through two more iterations of revision, clearly indicates...
2023-04-27 23:48:00 ET Summary I see the economy continuing to grow at about a 2% rate and I see inflation falling. Swap spreads and credit spreads continue to be relatively low and well-behaved. An economy growing at a modest 2% rate, inflation by all measures declining signi...
2023-04-27 22:30:00 ET Summary The US economy expanded at a 1.1% annualized rate in the first quarter – lower than the 1.9% consensus. The business sector held back growth overall with the investment story looking much weaker than expected. The headwinds from higher bor...
2023-04-27 21:05:00 ET Summary As the S&P 500 broke down to the lowest levels of April this week, bullish sentiment according to the weekly AAII survey came in at a new short-term low. After rising to 27.2% last week, only 24.1% of respondents reported as bullish this week, th...