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2023-04-27 21:05:00 ET Summary As the S&P 500 broke down to the lowest levels of April this week, bullish sentiment according to the weekly AAII survey came in at a new short-term low. After rising to 27.2% last week, only 24.1% of respondents reported as bullish this week, th...
2023-04-27 03:11:54 ET Summary The historical record shows U.S. stock market performance following recessions hasn't always been bad. In fact, U.S. stocks have often done quite well soon after the onset of recessions. If the current time period ends up being classified as a re...
2023-04-26 22:15:00 ET Summary Crescat is a global macro asset management firm. Our mission is to grow and protect wealth over the long term. The ongoing deficit spending and debt monetization since the 2008 crisis have created a trifecta of macro imbalances. Forward-thinking ...
2023-04-26 15:15:00 ET Summary Quality was the star performer in most markets in the first-quarter rollercoaster ride, with most of the factor's outperformance coming in March. Quality broadly outpaced its respective broad-market benchmarks and all other factors in Q1, most signif...
2023-04-26 14:21:32 ET Summary The overall financial sector is decidedly mixed: larger banks are being deemed inherently more survivable than small banks. Flows indicate a preference for size, with Big Tech being a prominent beneficiary. These flows are a self-fulfilling prophecy ...
2023-04-26 02:37:00 ET Summary Economic growth across the four largest developed economies has accelerated to the fastest for 11 months in April, according to early 'flash' PMI data compiled by S&P Global. Manufacturing output meanwhile fell for a tenth successive month in Apr...
2023-04-26 02:20:00 ET Summary On April 25, the Fed released the M2 statistics for the month of March '23, and they were very encouraging. The decline in M2 which began about a year ago is accelerating, with the result that M2 has fallen by almost $900 billion (-4.1%) since its pe...
2023-04-26 01:47:00 ET Summary The change in core inflation during the two-year period following the beginning of a recession has averaged just -0.4%. Rate hikes have a disproportionate impact on interest-sensitive sectors such as housing and durable goods, but the effect on overa...
2023-04-25 16:25:16 ET Summary The Fed has made its intentions clear – inflation is far too high and there will be no interest rate cuts in 2023. The bond market is screaming for an imminent recession and pricing in four Fed interest rate cuts by January. The equity mar...
2023-04-25 14:33:00 ET Summary Despite persistent inflation and tightening financial conditions, the global economic expansion will continue at a moderate pace. Global real GDP growth picked up from an annual rate of 1.5% quarter over quarter at the end of 2022 to an estimated 2.5...