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2023-04-30 01:38:07 ET Summary We discuss the subject of “dedollarization” and the link to commodities, SVB, and the Bank of Amsterdam. The stagflationary environment in the light of the most recent US GDP print of the 1st quarter at 1.1%. EM equities are a bet o...
2023-04-29 10:51:43 ET Summary For years, we've been told the banking system is sound and highly capitalized - that lessons were learned from the 2008 crisis. This year's first four months could see three of the top four - with First Republic soon to supplant SVB for the number tw...
2023-04-29 07:43:10 ET Summary The bulls look to Corporate America and earnings to keep the economy stable. After a slow start, this earnings season is not as bad as feared. In the short term, the "glass is half full", but it's more of a "glass half empty" for the MARCO scene. ...
2023-04-29 07:21:00 ET Summary The NBER is notoriously slow in identifying when the business cycle in the U.S. either peaks before going into recession or troughs when coming out of one. Analysts have built models to try to predict the timing of when the country's business cycle h...
2023-04-29 07:00:00 ET Summary The US economy expanded at a much slower rate than expected in the first quarter, a prelude to recession, according to some forecasters. But there are clues that suggest the economy is stabilizing at a sluggish pace rather than tumbling into recessio...
2023-04-29 04:00:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 EPS upside surprise rate is way strong in Q1 ’23. There is only one sector that isn’t beating the estimates and that’s Real Estate with a -0.9% downside surprise rate. No question the bearish expectations head...
2023-04-29 03:20:00 ET Summary Labor has become easier to hire, employers are reporting, though challenges remain. Easing labor market tightness resulted from more people choosing to work, or at least look for work. This trend will continue for at least two more years, though we w...
2023-04-29 02:20:00 ET Summary The problem with “conviction” is that it leads to various behavioral biases that interfere with portfolio returns over longer-term time horizons. The problem with having a strong “conviction” about some economic, political...
2023-04-29 01:20:00 ET Summary Inflation remains 'unacceptably high', but banking stresses are leading to a tightening of lending conditions, which will do more to slow the economy than the likely 25bp hike on Wednesday. While the Fed will leave the door ajar for further hikes, th...
2023-04-29 00:05:00 ET Summary This week will be extremely busy as we have an FOMC decision, the nonfarm payroll report, peak earnings season, all while Wall Street keeps an eye on the banking industry to see if any new stresses arise. The ECB is under less pressure to pause its t...