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2023-05-01 09:02:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 ended the week at 4169.48, rising 0.9% over its previous week's close. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will hike the Federal Funds Rate by a quarter point to a target range of 5.00-5.25% at its upcoming meeting on 3 ...
2023-05-01 08:00:00 ET Summary As U.S. tax receipts come in slower than expected, there is growing alarm that the debt ceiling is closing in. Markets aren’t entirely ignoring the risks now. We believe investors can benefit from remaining cautious, liquid, and flexible o...
2023-05-01 07:15:00 ET Summary In mid-March, financial markets were in a mini tailspin and investors’ appetite for risk plummeted, and in the face of the turmoil, insiders took a contrarian view. As fears of a burgeoning banking crisis have abated and securities markets hav...
2023-05-01 06:11:03 ET Summary Economics 101 would suggest that the Fed may hike rates to the range of 5.0% to 5.25% because inflation is arguably still too high. But the Fed's thinking will not only be informed by inflation but also by politics, financial stability, and economic ...
2023-04-30 11:20:04 ET Summary Key technical levels and patterns in the S&P 500 across all timeframes. Current and future drivers of price action. My call for next week. The S&P 500 ( SPY ) held support this week and ripped higher into the end of the week...
2023-04-30 09:19:02 ET Summary The S&P 500 Stock Index has now risen for two months in a row, but still remains around 20 percent below its last historical high. Many investors still see much good news in current earnings reports and also believe that Mr. Powell and the Federa...
2023-04-30 09:00:00 ET Summary On May 5th, new payroll data for the month of April is expected to be released. Analysts are currently forecasting meaningful weakness, likely due to ongoing economic issues like high inflation and climbing interest rates. This data will play a b...
2023-04-30 06:15:00 ET Summary The March 2023 FOMC statement mimics the policy path of 2006. If that continues to play out, then May will not be the last rate hike of this cycle. The economic data suggest that more rate hikes will be needed. The Federal Open Market C...
2023-04-30 05:36:00 ET Summary There have been glimmers of hope in 2023 that the inflation fixation of 2022 was a transitory phenomenon. Regulated prices tend to be more discrete and more lagged in their changes due to bureaucratic delays and their negotiated nature. In our vi...
2023-04-30 01:38:07 ET Summary We discuss the subject of “dedollarization” and the link to commodities, SVB, and the Bank of Amsterdam. The stagflationary environment in the light of the most recent US GDP print of the 1st quarter at 1.1%. EM equities are a bet o...