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2024-05-15 15:01:28 ET Summary April Consumer Price Index increased 0.3% from March, largely driven by shelter and gasoline prices. Given such data, rate cuts in 2024 are unlikely in my view, leading to gloomy projections for major equity indices. The very thin Excess CAPE Yie...
2024-05-15 14:30:00 ET Summary The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's headline reading came in at -15.6. That miss relative to forecasts means the indicator has been weaker than expected three months in a row. The negative reading in the headline index indicates a contraction...
2024-05-15 13:28:47 ET Summary CPI and Core CPI rose as expected, indicating trends consistent with high inflation rates. Retail sales were disappointing and stagnant, suggesting a potential stagflation-like environment. The economy may be experiencing a stagnating or stagflat...
2024-05-15 13:25:00 ET Summary In April 2024, fourteen constituents of the Everyday Price Index rose in price, with the largest increases taking place in motor fuel, food away from home, and personal care services. In the 12 months from April 2023 to April 2024, headline CPI rose ...
2024-05-15 13:10:00 ET Summary Calling tops and bottoms in the stock market is the Holy Grail for investing analytics. The value of monitoring valuation/bubble risk and trend is that when the two are in agreement, the related risk analysis is arguably more persuasive. The long...
2024-05-15 08:35:00 ET Summary The dollar is trading weakly against G10 currencies and emerging market currencies as the market expects softer US CPI and retail sales data. US interest rates are softer, with Treasury yields at their lowest level since April 10. Equities are mo...
2024-05-15 02:10:00 ET Summary In June 2022, the Federal Reserve began its program of quantitative tightening (QT) as a complementary policy to conventional interest rate hikes. On May 1, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced an important change to the program that seemed to attrac...
2024-05-14 15:10:00 ET Summary Earlier in the day on 5/14, the NFIB published the results of its latest survey of Small Business Optimism. While the optimism index sits in the bottom decile of historical readings, the 1.2 point month-over-month jump ranks in the top quartile of mo...
2024-05-14 13:30:00 ET Summary While there is much debate over whether another bear market is imminent, weekly moving average crossovers suggest a different outcome for now. Understanding that the market tends to lead the economy by six months or more, we can use longer-term marke...
2024-05-14 10:10:00 ET Summary Demographic trends are elevating entitlement spending, and higher spending on infrastructure and other pandemic-era priorities has kept overall government outlays above pre-pandemic levels. Incremental deficit change is what influences growth rates, ...
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2024-08-03 18:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-14 15:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-04 17:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...