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Last December, the Fed indicated that tapering would begin after “substantial further progress” toward the central bank’s employment and price-stability objectives. The Fed’s priority is to avoid disruption, making the successful 2014 taper a logical starti...
Friday, it was news that US consumer confidence fell 13% from July into August to 70.2 (vs 81.3 expected), the lowest since 2011. Yesterday, it was news that US retail sales for July - purchases at stores, restaurants and online - fell 1.1% compared with June. Today, we learn that...
As equity style winds shift, investors are still debating the merits of growth versus value stocks. The “discount” component of DCF analysis is a discount rate to reflect the fact that money received in the future is worth less than money in hand today. Future cash f...
The next Z.1 report comes out in late September, but will only bring the data up to June 30th. I use a pair of adjustments to adjust the share of assets invested in risk assets between releases. The share of funds model now rates the market as having the highest valuation since 1945. ...
My reading of the current environment is relatively clear; both the longer term and shorter-term leading growth indicators are pointing toward the heightened possibility of slowing cyclical growth. As a result, these downward trends suggest investors ought to be rotating out of the re...
A technical analysis of the S&P 500 and SPY ETF using Elliott Wave theory suggests a drop in the index to 3600 or $360 for the ETF may be heading this way. Fundamental analysis of the index shows valuation may be too high based on slowing earnings growth rates. Fundamentals al...
The stock market is historically overvalued. The stock market is overbought on long-term charts. Large caps stocks can easily correct 20%-30%, certain Meme and Zombie stocks could be much worse. The Fed, as always, will play a pivotal role in how deep of a decline we see, watc...
Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared. At the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. ...
Any disappointment in key US data today is likely to see a larger reaction than a consensus beat. Markets are primed for hints of further deceleration, sentiment already dampened by the spreading delta variant and geopolitics. More concrete hints on the Fed taper will be needed fo...
Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is “deeply concerned” about the Fed’s easy money policy and urged the Fed to curtail its aggressive intervention in the bond market. This raises questions about whether or not the Fed might taper sooner than expected. I believe the Fed w...
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Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...
Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...
Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This report optimizes tradi...