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Gold tends to become more valuable when the real interest rate is trending downward and less valuable when the real interest rate is trending upward. The only way to get an accurate read on the real U.S. interest rate trend is via the yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities....
Short-term Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are a safe-haven investment in this turbulent market. They have no credit risk, no inflation risk, and very little interest rate risk. iShares 0-5 Year TIPS Bond ETF is the fund I most strongly recommend. For further details...
The war in Ukraine clearly triggered the spike in oil prices and in agricultural prices as well. Inflation, interest rates and Fed policy are linked. Similarly, supply chain disruptions, the slowdown in China, and big-tech reversals are all Covid-related. The bottom line right now...
We cut developed market (DM) equities to neutral on a risk of the Fed talking itself into overtightening policy and China adding to a weaker global outlook. Stocks plumbed new 2022 lows on fears steep rate rises will trigger a growth slowdown. We see a brighter picture, but this may n...
High-yield bonds had a tough start to the year in the face of high inflation, and yields have now reached a level many investors consider to be attractive. While inflation expectations have come down in recent weeks, there is still uncertainty about how far the Fed will go in its...
TLT's technical chart is pointing to a clear bear market. Don't make the mistake of thinking that bond prices will automatically rise if yields fall. Inflation remains the number 1 enemy of bondholders. For further details see: TLT: Bondholders Are Running Out Of Options...
BHK is a fixed income CEF focused on Treasuries and investment grade bonds. Since our Sell rating, the fund has lost more than 10% on a price basis. With rates close to peaking, we feel the easy money has been already made in shorting BHK. This article covers CEFs from our sui...
If one is convinced that the secular tide on inflation has turned, TIPS might still be cheap on a longer-term basis. From a directional perspective, whether or not inflation is higher or lower than the breakeven inflation rate is the most important question. A recession triggered ...
The recent flattening of the yield curve can now allow investors to earn pretty much the same yield in bonds while taking much less duration exposure. We take a look at SJNK - a high-yield corporate bond with a very low duration exposure which earns a higher yield than its longer-dura...
TBF is an ETF which is short long-dated bonds as reflected in the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index. 30-year rates have had a violent reset higher in 2022, closing in on their 2018 highs. We are of the opinion that the bulk of the rates move is behind us and the "easy money" i...
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2024-05-14 08:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-05 08:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-23 18:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...