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The stock market can get a little crazy sometimes - out of control. The bond market is more in tune with the economy and takes a longer-term approach. The action in the bond market is telling us that there is trouble on the horizon. Credit spreads have increased, and the high yiel...
Investors would be more than happy to see the end of the paradox of bonds with negative returns. The least bad option is to invest in investment grade bonds, even if their yield is negative as it will still be cheaper for banks than having excess capital on deposit. Therefore, neg...
Investors that hold bonds to maturity earn the yield at which they purchased the security, and at maturity, they get paid face value. The US government issues its own currency and can always pay for anything with the Fed’s newly created money. Fixed income investors have go...
The bond market is still in a very confused state as the government and many high-grade companies can borrow at rates that are below the rate of inflation. Furthermore, the financial markets are in so much disorder now that any "tentative" Fed actions to stem inflation will fall far s...
The primary market has taken center stage after a brief hiatus over the holidays. We typically see January issuance skewed toward financial institutions; and, so far, this year has been no different. On the other hand, we’ve seen moderate outperformance in new issues from U...
Inflation and the pressure that it’s putting on central banks to normalize policy frame the outlook for 2022. Businesses have benefited as economies have re-opened after the first waves of the pandemic. Two sectors — consumer cyclical and integrated energy — h...
The flattening Treasury curve likely has more to do with the market's failure to recognize growing structural inflationary forces. Exceptionally high inflation has turned the U.S. Federal Reserve notably hawkish. Commodity prices continue to climb, with oil touching $90 per barrel...
For investors who want to earn a reasonable return without taking excessive risks, diversification still works, and we think you’re going to need more of it this year. The weighing of the high-flyers is not over. Commodities had another good week, and the 1-year return is getti...
Markets had expected the BoE's bank rate hike, but they were caught a bit off guard by a surprising pivot by the ECB, widely seen as the most dovish of major central banks in wanting to hold off talk of any rate hikes until after 2022. ECB president Christine Lagarde noted that inflat...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...
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2024-06-24 21:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 07:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 23:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...