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Global growth uncertainty has accelerated, while inflation appears likely to persist. Still, we anticipate neither recession nor stagnation; moreover, central bank tightening expectations have likely peaked, potentially normalizing interest rate volatility and supporting spread sector...
In an era of low yields, generating income has been a challenge for many investors, with attractive yields limited to a narrow range of asset classes. That landscape has improved somewhat since early 2022, with inflation, geopolitical tensions and hawkish global monetary policies driv...
As investors continue to digest the likely path of this tightening cycle, we think the dramatic moves of recent weeks are set to ease, laying a good foundation for credit investors. We now expect the Fed to hike rates by 50 basis points in both May and June, followed by a sequence of ...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI...
The Treasury curve continued flattening during the first quarter of 2022, with short-term Treasury yields rising precipitously while longer Treasury yields rose at a slower rate. As the Treasury curve flattened and yields rose, spreads on investment-grade corporates and taxable munici...
Follow the Money is a series of brief, information-rich posts that I will publish periodically but not on a fixed schedule. After rallying for 9 of the last 11 days, the S&P 500 went from down -13% to down just -3.4%. Growth has been hit hard by the slide in tech stocks this y...
Pick any barometer of costs these days, and the story is the same: Prices are up - and in a dramatic fashion. The first thing that jumps out is the dismal performance of most asset classes during periods of low growth and high inflation - otherwise known as stagflation. A solid fo...
The US Federal Reserve is turning increasingly hawkish—hiking rates fast enough to slow inflation while maintaining economic growth will be a monumental task. The Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions team opines on what to expect from the Fed and gauges whether it is already...
Interest rates have an outsize effect on equity valuations. The shape of the Treasury yield curve contains all sorts of information about economic expectations. Credit risk spreads between benchmark Treasuries and corporate bonds. Credit risk spreads are not telling us that we sho...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions response, and the gyrations in commodity markets cast an even thicker layer of uncertainty on what already was an uncertain economic and financial market outlook before the onset of this horrific war. Despite the many unknowns, we dra...
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2024-06-24 21:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 07:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 23:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...