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2023-11-27 14:30:00 ET Summary Market implied Fed Funds rate discount a string of cuts starting in January 2024 and culminating in a 4.492 percent in January 2025. Markets are not following monetary aggregates, and what they show is not good for the economy. Fed rate cuts as t...
2023-11-27 12:56:00 ET Summary Despite negative news, the US economy is growing at a trend of 2% and has added nearly 3 million new jobs over the past year. Real disposable personal income (adjusted for inflation, after tax) is up 3.5% over the last year and real personal consumpt...
2023-11-25 05:08:23 ET Summary Hedge funds betting on a decline in US and European stock markets have suffered an estimated $43bn of losses in a sharp rally over recent days. The Goldman Sachs most short index began the year with a 34% rally into early February. Chinese Bubble...
2023-11-24 07:30:00 ET Summary The bond market's obsession with the rate cycle should blind it from fiscal deficit worries. A rate-cutting cycle typically results in positive total returns right out the curve, with the best of those in longer tenors. We're expecting that for m...
2023-11-24 06:55:00 ET Summary Even though the US Treasury has taken some pressure off longer tenors by morphing new issuance towards shorter tenors, the size of the fiscal deficit still matters for the bond market. For any given Fed funds rate, it means a steeper curve from the b...
2023-11-23 05:30:00 ET Summary Inflation reports from the US, eurozone, and UK suggest that their rate hike cycles may have come to an end. I still expect some volatility, as there is still significant uncertainty around the timing of when rate cuts will begin. All in all, I t...
2023-11-23 01:15:00 ET Summary The most recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October came in lower than economists’ expectations and showed declines across most categories. With inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, concerns continue to linger over wh...
2023-11-22 22:20:00 ET Summary Rate-cut bets have been piling up and getting moved closer, as everything that central bankers say – no matter what – is either being interpreted as “dovish” or is being brushed aside. There is a problem with markets betti...
2023-11-21 09:48:00 ET Summary From the standpoint of systematic monetary policy, the Federal Funds rate remains below, not above, levels that have historically been consistent with prevailing core inflation, output, employment, and sales. Emphatically, our investment discipline i...
2023-11-21 08:30:00 ET Summary Consumer inflation is fading fast, and producer prices actually declined last month. This means the Fed is done raising key rates. The prices of imports also declined 0.8% in October, which is the first monthly decline since June, giving evidence of ...
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2024-06-09 10:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-18 18:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-30 08:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...