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Far from moderating, new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show that inflation picked up in June. Core PCEPI inflation, which excludes food and energy prices and is thought to be a better indicator of future PCEPI inflation, also picked up. The change in policy can be seen...
We present the SAS Weekly Forecast as of August 5, 2022. The market has now had more than three weeks to adjust to the negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread, now at a negative 31 basis points. Inverted Treasury Yields: Inverted now, 87.5% probability by February 3, 2023. ...
Rising price pressures, stronger and more persistent than generally expected, has been the main challenge for consumers, businesses, and policymakers. The Bank of Japan's balance sheet is nearly 135% of GDP. The Fed's balance sheet is about 36.5% of GDP. Last week, the Bank of Eng...
Only 10% of the nation feels positive about the economy, and last month, consumer sentiment hit a record low. Climate change is submerging or parching dense and developed regions all over the globe. The greatest threat to our nation isn’t an economic recession, but losing t...
In July, the S&P 500 rallied more than 9% and long-term treasuries, as measured by the BofA/Merrill 10+ Year US Treasury Index, jumped over 3%. The S&P 500’s annualized total return of 10.0% is nearly one percentage point below the historical average of 10.9%. Over ...
Given the weight of the evidence from the past decade of market performance, it makes sense that stocks should perform better if the Fed pivots from monetary tightening. The stock market continues to perform when the Fed is lifting interest rates. What is clear is that the time to...
Muni debt is mostly owned by tax-paying Americans, and their preferences determine the market prices of the debt. Trillions in derivatives are tied to Treasury debt structures and are part of global transactions that ignore the yield curve outlook and trade against the Treasury yield ...
Central banks retain a heavy hand in these markets. The Fed is pushing back against the dovish interpretation of the July meeting, while the ECB started intervention in peripheral bond markets through PEPP reinvestments. The Fed should ideally be in tune with the market mindset, e...
The direction of inflation over the next decade will be the most important determinant of investment performance. US may be entering a decade of stagflation, plagued by the same debt / reflation / zombification cycle that has bedeviled Japan's economy for the last 30 years. Steepe...
Despite some easing in longer-term inflation expectations, shorter-term expectations remain near record highs. Inflation expectations remaining elevated, risk anchoring inflation higher and becoming self-fulfilling. A pivot to monetary easing looks rather unlikely until inflation ...
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2024-03-30 08:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-10 03:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-01-05 16:14:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...