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The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Everything apart from cash was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index ex-US surged 4.0% last month, the...
Stocks were up last week with growth leading the way for a change. Small-cap stocks also had a good week and commodities rebounded. Foreign markets also had a good week with even China beating the large cap US index. Copper rebounded smartly, up 4.4% and crude oil was also up over 4%....
This is a truly singular global recession and recovery, and it makes portfolio diversification both vital and challenging. At the moment, the item that tops the agenda for most of our clients is no big surprise: inflation, and what to do about it in portfolios. Inflation is usuall...
Federal reserve minutes and recent comments suggest inflation could rise to 3%. Apart from consumer-led inflation, there is further room for producer prices and commodity prices rise. Inflation expectations are still underpriced, and the US Treasury/TIPS spread implies future infl...
Bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April. There was a 27% decline followed by a 27% rally, followed by last week’s rout. From its intraday peak in April to its intraday low last week, bitcoin fell over 53%. Is that the end of the sell-off? Doubts about the post-virus bo...
The near-term outlook for inflation continues to suggest a temporary spike, reflecting an adjustment higher in price levels as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic. In Europe, we expect GDP to normalize to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, with inflation remaining l...
When the ECB was founded, it adopted inflation targeting with the implicit assumption that the purpose of the policy was to hold down inflation. In 2020, the Fed adopted an average inflation targeting policy with the implicit assumption that it would be used to push inflation higher w...
CPI estimates for last month represented a seismic shift in the inflation debate. Producer prices, or PPI, came up even more over the moon than those for consumers. Transitory inflation is no inflation at all; unusually low nominal and real yields all around. You really have to wo...
Markets are still grappling with the Federal Reserve's new framework, leading to a disconnect between market pricing and the Fed’s projections for rates. U.S. job growth unexpectedly slowed in April. We believe near-term activity data will unlikely affect the Fed’s polic...
Volatility returned to government bond markets in April, amid a flood of central bank decisions and noteworthy economic data. The largest movement came from the Portuguese 10-year government bond, whose mid-yield surged by nearly 27 basis points to close at 0.49%, the highest level si...
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2024-07-24 22:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-24 23:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 16:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...