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Fast-rising inflation could have major economic consequences with implications that reach far beyond the checkout aisle. The best-known measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index [CPI], rose 5% in May 2021 compared with the same month last year — the biggest annual rise sin...
The latest update for the June 2021 central bank conclave shows several more voting members projecting the first rate hikes to begin toward the end of next year, a supposedly very hawkish shift from the last time. While that may be true, it also doesn’t mean anything, especiall...
Released on 16 June, the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies that the Fed could hike interest rates twice in 2023 instead of 2024 or later, as it had projected in March. We see the recent rise in inflation expectations as a welcome development because infl...
Much of last week’s economic focus was on the inflation report. Inflation was indeed pretty hot year over year, but that wasn’t unexpected. With CPI printing at 5% year over year, bond yields fell. But these are small moves, and the trend for rates is still up for now. ...
On the surface, conditions in the US look pretty fantastic these days. Prices for lots of goods and services are soaring. Job openings are at record highs. Does the historically low level of real risk-free yields on TIPS suggest that US economic growth will be anemic at best for as fa...
Episodes of a high and rising inflation rate are mostly due to unexpected inflation shocks, and assets may reprice materially during such regimes. Unexpected inflation is bad news for traditional assets, the 60-40 equity-bond portfolio performed poorly during inflationary regimes, wit...
The latest leading economic data indicate that the recovery is intact and that the strong GDP growth reported for the first quarter of this year will continue. We were looking for the US economy to recover rapidly during the second half of 2020, level off during the first half of 2021...
Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to tick higher in May. GMI’s Sharpe ratio — a measure of risk-adjusted return – rose to 0.82 on a trailing 10-year basis through last month. That’s close to a pandemic high, but still...
The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected risk premium held steady at 5.9% annualized in May, matching the previous month’s estimate. The framework for estimating equilibrium returns was initially outlined in a 1974 paper by Professor Bill Sharpe. Keep in mind, too, t...
The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Everything apart from cash was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index ex-US surged 4.0% last month, the...
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2024-07-24 22:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-24 23:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 16:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...