TV Asahi: ABEMA Inflection And Cost Control Ahead Of MediaCity 2026

2025-02-11 15:05:43 ET

Summary

• TV Asahi Holdings Corporation is making headway in disposing ignored security balances and making significant investments into possibly profitable real estate and venue investments.
• Moreover, the operating business is seeing solid performance. ABEMA is inflecting into profitability, cost control is working, and the S/D dynamics for TV advertising are good.
• More earnings growth could be coming this year from equity accounted stakes apart from ABEMA with Toei possibly releasing a new One Piece movie soon.
• For the current THDDY stock price to be fair value, you have to delete everything from the SotP besides the at-cost investments going into MediaCity, even ignoring the real and consistent Toei bottom-line contribution.
• Blended P/E approach between Toei and typical Japanese TV broadcasters gets you a 58% upside, and more than 120% if markets eventually trust management to manage non-operating assets to better shareholder benefit.

Highly liquid on the TSE. It is generally better to access foreign exchanges if possible as the OTC and pink sheets are independently made markets and may have higher trading costs, significant bid-ask spreads, and low liquidity.

TV Asahi Holdings Corporation ( THDDY , TVAHF , ISIN:JP3429000007) remains an attractive pick based on a heavily discounted valuation . While Japan is rich with low-EV ideas like TV Asahi, a demonstration of ability and willingness to invest excess cash that drives these low EV theses is necessary. This is to differentiate the dead capital ideas (of which there are many in Japan in the low-EV space) from those with considerable and low-risk stock growth potential. Many low-EV Japanese companies remain so because of a lack of shareholder-oriented management (causing idle net cash to be discounted by markets), limited payout ratios and perennially accumulating retained earnings (growing excess cash balances for decades), diworsification, or years of poor results and secular decline. To rectify some of these issues, the Tokyo Stock Exchange came in with top-down measures and delisting threats to any company with P/B ratios below 1x or with low “ tradable share ratios .” These are defined essentially as a low proportion of active holders in the capital stack (too much corporate cross-shareholding or family ownership)....

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