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2024-04-15 10:25:48 ET Summary Retail sales in the U.S. expanded by +0.72% in March 2024, surprising to the upside by +0.32%. The strong retail sales report suggests that the U.S. economy is in a "no-landing" scenario, with average economic growth and accelerating inflation. A...
2024-04-11 08:25:33 ET Summary We discuss different inflation scenarios for the USA, assuming no major disruptions to global oil supplies. Four non-oil-shock scenarios for US core inflation between now and October 2024 are examined. The 6-month and 12-month annualized rates of...
2024-04-10 11:30:54 ET Summary March CPI rose by +0.38%, higher than expected, indicating potential inflationary pressures. Core CPI also exceeded expectations at 0.36%. Super-core inflation, the metric the Fed looks at most closely, is accelerating at an alarming pace. ...
2024-04-09 12:10:00 ET Summary We continue to maintain a cautious risk stance, with active risk of the 2024 positions below long-term levels. We increased our exposure to duration, which is now the largest contributor to active risk. We achieved this overweight using a mix of nomi...
2024-04-05 10:59:57 ET More on Markets We're seeing new money come into Bitcoin – TD Securities Treasury yields continue to climb, see what SA analysts have to say Dividend Roundup: Citigroup, Mastercard, AT&T, PNC Financial, and more Markets broad...
2024-04-05 10:55:39 ET Summary Nonfarm Payrolls in March exceeded expectations, growing by 303 thousand jobs, compared to a forecasted change of 212 thousand. The unemployment rate fell below expectations, while average hourly earnings and average hours worked both surprised to th...
2024-04-05 09:05:00 ET Summary Three mega-forces seem set to dominate the investment landscape for the next decade or longer, with major implications for the macro regime and portfolio design. Each of these far-reaching forces - climate change, demographics and deglobalization - i...
2024-04-04 15:40:00 ET Summary As inflation recedes from recent cyclical highs, many investors are selling their holdings of inflation-protected securities. The result? Explicit inflation protection has become unusually cheap. In our view, the right active inflation strategy s...
2024-04-04 11:00:00 ET Summary What is clear is that a number of broad-brush commodity funds are rebounding in 2024 after a down year for the asset class in 2023. In contrast with market-cap-weighted index funds for stocks, a much deeper dive is required for understanding and choo...
2024-04-02 12:25:56 ET Summary Real manufacturer's shipments (adjusted for inflation) contracted by -0.12%. The manufacturing sector of the economy continues to be weak. However, despite this fact, some inflationary pressures are beginning to emerge. The overall U.S. economy i...
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