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2024-04-15 10:25:48 ET Summary Retail sales in the U.S. expanded by +0.72% in March 2024, surprising to the upside by +0.32%. The strong retail sales report suggests that the U.S. economy is in a "no-landing" scenario, with average economic growth and accelerating inflation. A...
2024-04-11 08:25:33 ET Summary We discuss different inflation scenarios for the USA, assuming no major disruptions to global oil supplies. Four non-oil-shock scenarios for US core inflation between now and October 2024 are examined. The 6-month and 12-month annualized rates of...
2024-04-10 11:30:54 ET Summary March CPI rose by +0.38%, higher than expected, indicating potential inflationary pressures. Core CPI also exceeded expectations at 0.36%. Super-core inflation, the metric the Fed looks at most closely, is accelerating at an alarming pace. ...
2024-04-09 12:10:00 ET Summary We continue to maintain a cautious risk stance, with active risk of the 2024 positions below long-term levels. We increased our exposure to duration, which is now the largest contributor to active risk. We achieved this overweight using a mix of nomi...
2024-04-05 10:59:57 ET More on Markets We're seeing new money come into Bitcoin – TD Securities Treasury yields continue to climb, see what SA analysts have to say Dividend Roundup: Citigroup, Mastercard, AT&T, PNC Financial, and more Markets broad...
2024-04-05 10:55:39 ET Summary Nonfarm Payrolls in March exceeded expectations, growing by 303 thousand jobs, compared to a forecasted change of 212 thousand. The unemployment rate fell below expectations, while average hourly earnings and average hours worked both surprised to th...
2024-04-05 09:05:00 ET Summary Three mega-forces seem set to dominate the investment landscape for the next decade or longer, with major implications for the macro regime and portfolio design. Each of these far-reaching forces - climate change, demographics and deglobalization - i...
2024-04-04 15:40:00 ET Summary As inflation recedes from recent cyclical highs, many investors are selling their holdings of inflation-protected securities. The result? Explicit inflation protection has become unusually cheap. In our view, the right active inflation strategy s...
2024-04-04 11:00:00 ET Summary What is clear is that a number of broad-brush commodity funds are rebounding in 2024 after a down year for the asset class in 2023. In contrast with market-cap-weighted index funds for stocks, a much deeper dive is required for understanding and choo...
2024-04-02 12:25:56 ET Summary Real manufacturer's shipments (adjusted for inflation) contracted by -0.12%. The manufacturing sector of the economy continues to be weak. However, despite this fact, some inflationary pressures are beginning to emerge. The overall U.S. economy i...
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2024-05-04 18:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-25 00:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
The March inflation report came in hotter than expected, stirring concerns among market participants and one section of the economists. Former Trea...