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April CPI came in at 4.16%, and May CPI hit an eye-popping 4.99%, both higher than the consensus expectations. But, rather than being broad-based, consumer inflation appears to be concentrated in just a few specific items. When examining these specific items that have experienced ...
Much of last week’s economic focus was on the inflation report. Inflation was indeed pretty hot year over year, but that wasn’t unexpected. With CPI printing at 5% year over year, bond yields fell. But these are small moves, and the trend for rates is still up for now. ...
On the surface, conditions in the US look pretty fantastic these days. Prices for lots of goods and services are soaring. Job openings are at record highs. Does the historically low level of real risk-free yields on TIPS suggest that US economic growth will be anemic at best for as fa...
Episodes of a high and rising inflation rate are mostly due to unexpected inflation shocks, and assets may reprice materially during such regimes. Unexpected inflation is bad news for traditional assets, the 60-40 equity-bond portfolio performed poorly during inflationary regimes, wit...
The latest leading economic data indicate that the recovery is intact and that the strong GDP growth reported for the first quarter of this year will continue. We were looking for the US economy to recover rapidly during the second half of 2020, level off during the first half of 2021...
Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to tick higher in May. GMI’s Sharpe ratio — a measure of risk-adjusted return – rose to 0.82 on a trailing 10-year basis through last month. That’s close to a pandemic high, but still...
Since offshoring contributed to the long-term disinflationary trend, it would seem to make sense that reshoring would contribute to an inflationary trend. The "reshoring will lead to higher inflation" argument revolves around differences in labor costs, which are much higher in the US...
The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected risk premium held steady at 5.9% annualized in May, matching the previous month’s estimate. The framework for estimating equilibrium returns was initially outlined in a 1974 paper by Professor Bill Sharpe. Keep in mind, too, t...
The major asset classes delivered across-the-board gains for a second month in a row in May. Everything apart from cash was up last month, led by a sizzling rally in foreign inflation-linked government bonds. The FTSE Russell World Inflation Index ex-US surged 4.0% last month, the...
Stocks were up last week with growth leading the way for a change. Small-cap stocks also had a good week and commodities rebounded. Foreign markets also had a good week with even China beating the large cap US index. Copper rebounded smartly, up 4.4% and crude oil was also up over 4%....
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2024-07-14 22:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 18:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-16 02:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...