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Economists continue to debate whether the high rates of inflation observed over the last few months are transitory or permanent. Year-on-year inflation was 4.3 percent in August. One way to estimate future inflation is to look at market expectations. Bond traders must consider inflati...
Bonds sold off again last week, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury closing over 1.6% for the first time since early June. But this rise in rates is at least a little different than the fall that preceded it. When nominal rates fell from April through July, real rates fell right al...
Risk-adjusted performance continued to rise in September for the Global Market Index (GMI), an unmanaged, market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). GMI’s 0.97 Sharpe ratio is close to the highest levels reached in recent history. ...
We view the U.S. Treasury yield spike as resolving a disconnect between the powerful restart and lower yields in recent months, and stay tactically pro-risk. U.S. 10-year yields jumped to the highest level in three months. Markets are prone to volatility, but ultimately we see yields ...
Most of the market “data” everyone obsesses about is just noise, especially when it comes to economic data. We just finished another quarter during which a lot of things were supposedly newsworthy but somehow produced almost nothing in the way of major market movements. ...
Global Market Index is useful as a starting point for research on asset allocation and portfolio design. Predictions for the market components are subject to greater uncertainty compared with aggregating forecasts, a process that may cancel out some of the errors through time. Com...
Mid and small-cap value continue to outperform their respective “growth” factors YTD. Only large-cap growth is beating large-cap value YTD. At some point, large-cap growth will go out of favor and it could last a while. For further details see: Style Box Up...
Global markets suffered their broadest retreat in a year during September. The bullish exception: commodities, which delivered a solid gain last month. Notably, US stocks and bonds lost ground, giving support to concerns that the historical diversification benefits of pairing the two ...
A fixed income investment can serve as diversifier against equities, a source of income, or even protection against inflation when using TIPS. As interest rates and inflation expectations evolve, a tactical rules-based approach to portfolio optimization can help provide investors with...
We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart, with negative real rates supporting risk assets - as per our new nominal theme. The Fed signaled it will start to taper around the year-end. Its reluctance to confirm inflation is meeting its new objective supports our ...
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2024-07-14 22:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 18:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-16 02:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...