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What happens when you combine the tipping point of two deflationary forces—globalization and demographics—with a pandemic, epic supply-chain disruptions and an invasion in Europe? Inflation of a magnitude not seen since the 1970s. As inflation evolves, so should investor...
I have seen a fair amount of chatter about currency regime shifts. Although such an event may be happening, there is no particular reason to get too excited about it from the perspective of the developed countries. The events of recent years hopefully have made corporations more cogni...
We see developed market (DM) government bonds as ineffective portfolio diversifiers and favor inflation-linked bonds in this inflationary environment. Energy prices surged on further supply concerns. Equities slid, with Europe harder hit than the U.S. Bond yields fell on reduced rate ...
Emerging Markets are outperforming the rest of the world, due in large part to windfall profits in the commodities-exporting countries of South America and the Middle East. If you want to follow the money, this is a good place to start. Money has been flowing out of tech, consumer dis...
I don't pretend to know how the Russia/Ukraine war will play out, but I can shed some light on how it has impacted the U.S. and Eurozone economies. Limiting Russia's ability to use the SWIFT payment system is a big factor reducing liquidity overseas. Whenever the market gets very ...
As the world reels from the crisis, the blowback is rippling across the world economy and markets. The current risk premia analysis implicitly recommends managing expectations down for GMI and other global multi-asset-class portfolios. The mean reversion factor is estimated as the...
We are tactically upgrading equities as we see greater clarity on the Ukraine conflict and reduced risk of central banks slamming the brakes to curb inflation. The S&P 500 slid into correction territory as Russia invaded Ukraine last week, but rebounded afterward. Bond prices show...
Russia-Ukraine crisis: What's Putin's next move? A full regime change in Ukraine may be tougher than Putin thinks. Bond market surprise: Why didn't long bonds react to Russian attack? For further details see: Russia-Ukraine Crisis: What's Putin's Next Move?
In 2022, we have extreme uncertainty around the fundamental economic environment, the policy response, inflation and the response of policymakers. Although we are cautiously optimistic on the inflationary trajectory, when you look at the relatively low rate environment still, you ...
From a monetary perspective, the U.S. faces a gigantic, two-sided problem: a huge surplus of money and a lack of demand for all that money. Inflation expectations have now reached their highest point since the introduction of TIPS in 1997: 2.9%. I will be pleased if the Fed become...
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2024-07-14 22:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 18:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-16 02:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...