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We cut developed market (DM) equities to neutral on a risk of the Fed talking itself into overtightening policy and China adding to a weaker global outlook. Stocks plumbed new 2022 lows on fears steep rate rises will trigger a growth slowdown. We see a brighter picture, but this may n...
If one is convinced that the secular tide on inflation has turned, TIPS might still be cheap on a longer-term basis. From a directional perspective, whether or not inflation is higher or lower than the breakeven inflation rate is the most important question. A recession triggered ...
Long-term clinical evidence has shown the most consistent bulwark has been Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS. This year, the iShares TIP fund has suffered a $4.5 billion net outflow while our table of five short-term TIPS ETFs have collectively raked in $5.6 billion in ...
In this post, I will look at some lessons that the market is urging us to learn from the current investing environment. Over the long term, equities tend to earn you an annualized 8%-10%. Internalize that investing in the stock market requires a sufficiently long time horizon. ...
There was a lot of volatility in stocks last week but in the end, the S&P 500 was down a mere 21 basis points. A rising currency is presumably negative for the export sector and positive for domestic purchasing power. On a sector basis, there were several winners last week wit...
The expected risk premium continued sliding in April for the Global Markets Index (GMI). Tuesday’s revision reflects a drop to a 5.4% annualized increase for the long term – a relatively large cut of 40 basis points from last month’s estimate. The forecast ref...
With U.S. bond market yields rising to levels not seen since 2018–19, market participants appear to be debating whether rates have further room to rise from here or whether the increases now represent a renewed buying opportunity to go long duration. The rise in UST yields thus...
Only one major asset was up last week: REITs. There were some negative developments that might explain the selling. With the drop in commodities and fears about the impact of the China slowdown, the immediate effect should be for inflation and growth expectations to moderate. We didn&...
If China were to continue to pursue a Zero Covid policy amidst rising case counts, supply chains originating in Asia could get shut down again. On the food front, wheat is particularly vulnerable to a prolonged conflict, which has been reflected in the performance of wheat futures. ...
Over the past 20 years, seniors, who only wanted to put their savings in a government bond that could sustain their income needs, were faced with decreasing income. Early last year in 2021, the U.S. Government I Bond interest rate increased to 3.54%. Be aware that if the economy t...
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2024-07-14 22:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-04 18:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-16 02:02:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...