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Summary Elevated inflation, currencies, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain key economic considerations. Volatility measured by the VIX spiked in September after declining in August. This wall of worry is real, but it is impor...
Summary The new regime poses an unavoidable trade-off for central banks: tame inflation by hiking or preserve growth. We see them overtightening rates, so keep risk low. UK gilt yields reached 14-year highs before the Bank of England intervened to halt the selloff. Yields on 10-ye...
Summary YTD, the S&P 500 is now down 24% while bonds have their own double-digit losses. Like stock valuations, currency valuations aren’t great timing tools but over a 3-year period after becoming undervalued, the outperformance is strong. Consumer defensive stocks...
Summary The Great Financial Crisis taught us about the extraordinary capacity of central bank balance sheets and fiscal authorities to absorb financial shocks and mitigate the effect of massive deleveraging. The politicians and monetary policymakers have become too used to their s...
Summary Leveraged ETFs behavior is neither intuitive nor predictable. Below is a dashboard with 22 of them, including SPUU. LABD is the worst of the list. Focus on SPUU: drift history and comparison with UPRO. The Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2X Shares ETF ( ...
Summary Money supply growth fell again in August, dropping to a 36-month low. Money supply growth tends to begin growing again before the onset of recession. Another indicator of recession appears in the form of the gap between M2 and TMS. When the difference between M2 an...
Summary It’s clear to see that the 30-year yield has decisively broken out of its downtrend channel. The bond vigilantes have finally been woken from their long slumber by rapidly rising inflation. It appears the bond vigilantes may throw a wrench in the Fed’s pl...
Summary After a series of hikes, the Fed’s short-run interest rate target lies between 3.0 and 3.25 percent. The problem with Fed policy isn’t excessive tightness, it’s excessive inscrutability. Don’t expect a smooth ride, let alone a soft landing, ...
Summary While the focus has been on Fed Funds Target range in wake of last week’s FOMC meeting, there is also another component to this query: the Treasury 10-Year yield. The Fed certainly made headlines at the just completed September FOMC meeting with their internal proje...
Summary Inflation as measured by government indices (e.g., CPI, PCE Deflator) is a lagging indicator of true inflation. True inflation is defined as the loss of purchasing power of a currency. Right now that is just not the case: the dollar is soaring against nearly every currency...
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2024-04-16 19:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-17 21:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-12 10:47:02 ET BTC iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) TLT is trading DOWN for the last 4 days, and it at trading at $94.99 with volume of 7,676,393 and a one day change of $-0.69 (-0.72%). BTC iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF has a 52-week low of 82.42 and a 52-week ...