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Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape - with economic consequences. While the 2022 global growth rate represents a slowdown from 5.8% in 2021, the world economy has sufficient resilience to avert a recession. While Russia ...
European stocks actually performed better than the NASDAQ last week so maybe it was positive developments in the Ukraine war that spurred the rally. The dollar index fell nearly 1% last week but is still in an uptrend across shorter time frames. What the market does on a week to w...
An analysis of global supply chains and commodity markets in the presence of significant kinetic warfare. An overview of why sovereign reserve practices may start to shift towards more diversification and neutral reserve assets. Examples of three attractive stocks for the long run...
March PMI data will therefore be scrutinised for the impact of these events on various economic metrics such as output, supply chains, prices and upon the sole sentiment PMI sub-index - the future output index. Since the eruption of the Ukraine crisis on February 24, commodity prices ...
For the second straight month, mutual fund investors were net redeemers of fund assets, withdrawing $94.5 billion from conventional funds for February. Fixed income funds (-$32.2 billion for February) witnessed net outflows for the third month in a row while money market funds (-$34.2...
We see the Ukraine war reducing global growth, increasing inflation and putting central banks in a bind. We prefer developed stocks in the inflationary backdrop. Stocks led by European equities bounced from 2022 lows last week, as oil prices came off highs. The European Central Bank a...
Putin’s gamble, and the West’s response, has brought into view one of the few existential tail risks that isn’t a Black Swan: the risk of an escalation into war between Russia and NATO, and the exchange of nuclear weaponry. We also know that the war between Ukrain...
The global economy expanded for a twentieth straight month in February, according to the JPMorgan Global PMI™ with the rate of expansion accelerating from January's 18-month low as the COVID-19 Omicron wave showed signs of easing. Global GDP growth in Q1 2022 so far looks slowe...
Worldwide manufacturing growth picked up in February after being subdued to a 1.5-year low in January due to the Omicron wave. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose from a 15-month low of 53.2 in January to 53.6 in February in a sign that the global economy continued to show enco...
Although I am working with obviously incomplete and biased information, I view the possibility of the cessation of hostilities within a few weeks to be unlikely. The sanctions, war disruptions, and a Western private sector that is cutting ties to Russia means that we are facing an ext...