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2024-05-12 07:56:00 ET Summary The scorecard remains tight and, in my view, tilted to a more neutral setting. I see nine pros and nine cons, with six segments classified as "neutral". The Administration's budget includes plans to increase taxes by $7 trillion, which could have sig...
2024-05-12 07:08:03 ET Summary Since the Great Recession began, the Federal Reserve has changed how it functions and, consequently, has changed how commercial banks operate. Before, commercial banks adjusted their reserve positions through the Federal Funds markets, but now this m...
2024-05-12 07:00:00 ET Summary Hotter-than-expected inflation has put the Fed on a higher for longer policy path. The CPI has been rising consistently at roughly 3.5% since summer 2022, posing a disinflationary concern. The CPI has been on a linear upward trajectory for 19 mon...
2024-05-11 12:46:54 ET Summary After worrisome CPI inflation figures in March, that prompted hawkishness from the Fed, the April figures are particularly significant to look out for. Forecasts don't indicate reason for optimism though. Even as gasoline inflation can come off, the ...
2024-05-10 14:00:00 ET Summary Q4 ’23 ended with a +10.1% growth rate for S&P 500 EPS, so it’s possible we could get to 10% in Q1 ’24, but the fact is that S&P 500 earnings are pretty healthy regardless. Financials have been performing very well. Credi...
2024-05-10 13:26:58 ET Summary Consumer sentiment dropped to a recession-like level, with current conditions also falling to levels associated with recessions since 1978. Inflation expectations increased, with one-year expectations at their highest level since November 2023 and a ...
2024-05-10 09:40:00 ET Summary With at least 65 countries heading to the polls this year, trade, foreign policy and regional economics could have an outsized influence on equity indexes. On top of the U.S., the U.K. and Europe are also holding general elections alongside Mexico an...
2024-05-10 07:50:00 ET Summary The four-week moving average of initial claims, which the Labor Department also provides, irons out the week-to-week squiggles. We’re looking for sharp increases in weekly claims for unemployment insurance benefits, and we’re looking fo...
2024-05-09 12:26:00 ET Summary The US growth story remains driven by consumer resilience. High income households are in a great financial position, but those on lower incomes are feeling intensifying stress. How these competing stories play out will be key to the growth outloo...
2024-05-09 10:40:00 ET Summary There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. In the search of early warning signs of trouble, it’s useful to focus on the labor market, which is arguably the key driver of economic strength and w...
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2024-07-14 23:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-24 13:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-05 06:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...